Pick of the Day: Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ugo Humbert, Monte Carlo

On Thursday, April 11, Lorenzo Sonego will take on world No. 15 Ugo Humbert in the Round of 16 in the Monte Carlo Masters. This is a match that seems like it should be pretty straightforward for the Frenchman, who is a career-best 17-7 (70.8%) in 2024. But his track record on clay is rather lousy, and Sonego should have a real shot in this match. I’m taking the Italian to win a set, and I’m also putting a little something on him to win outright.

While Humbert is just 11-24 on clay at the ATP level, Sonego is 49-47. He has won more matches than Humbert has played. Humbert might be in the middle of a massive leap, but he’s still just 3-6 on clay over the last 52 weeks. So, his improvements haven’t exactly manifested themselves on the red dirt.

Meanwhile, Sonego has been struggling a bit over the last year or so, but he’s still 11-9 on clay over the last 52 weeks. He’s just a fantastic clay-court player.

If you need any proof as to how much better Sonego is on the dirt, check out the fact that he’s 2-0 on clay against Humbert, and 0-2 against him on other surfaces. In fact, Sonego earned a 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 win over Humbert in this very tournament last year. Then, Sonego beat him to a pulp at Roland Garros, coming away with a 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 (3) victory. Overall, that success makes it hard not to like Sonego as a big plus-money underdog.

This season has been rough for Sonego, with his poor returning being a big part of that. He’s breaking at an absurdly low 11.7% this season. And it’s also a little concerning heading into a match against a big server. But Sonego, who is only in this tournament because of Carlos Alcaraz’s withdrawal, broke Felix Auger-Aliassime three times in a straight-set win last round. And there are some real similarities between Humbert and Auger-Aliassime, so that match should serve as good preparation for him, and a good comp for us.

I understand why Humbert is favored to win this match, but the head-to-head history between these two is hard to ignore. Sonego just knows how to get the job done on clay, while Humbert is trying to figure it out. That said, I think Sonego finds a way to push Humbert, at the very least. That’s why I’m willing to bite the bullet on some juice. And I’m throwing a half-unit on the moneyline because I genuinely think he wins this match more often than not.

Pick: Sonego +1.5 Sets (-160) & Sonego ML (+172 at 0.5 units)