Betting Preview: Tomas Machac vs. Matteo Arnaldi, Rome

On Thursday, May 9, Tomas Machac and Matteo Arnaldi will clash in an exciting match in Rome. While Machac is 2-0 against Arnaldi, I like the Italian to cover a small game spread in his home Masters 1000 event. Arnaldi, who was born in Sanrem, Italy, will have the crowd eating out of the palm of his hand at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. And Arnaldi also happens to be a little more proven on clay.

For as much as Machac has already accomplished in his career, he’s just 5-6 on clay at the ATP level. And Machac has never won a tournament on clay, even at the Challenger level. Well, Arnaldi is 13-11 on clay in his ATP career, and he’s 10-8 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. The Italian has also won five Challenger-level tournaments on clay, so this is a surface that can bring out the best in his game. I think we’ll see that materialize in this contest, especially with the added adrenaline he’ll get from the crowd.

Both of these players happen to play similar styles—I’d describe both as solid baseliners with the ability to be aggressive when they need to. But Machac will likely have a few more unforced errors in what should be a raucous atmosphere. Arnaldi’s ability to go big from the forehand side, especially with some heavy topspin, will be a weapon in these conditions. He is also a little more comfortable serving on this surface: in 11 career clay-court matches, Machac’s hold percentage is just 69.2%, while Arnaldi is 77.4%. The slower conditions here will only make it easier for Arnaldi to pick up Machac’s serve.

Overall, this is a tournament in which you’ll want to back some Italians, as the fans know how to get their guys going in Rome. Couple that with the fact that Arnaldi has a game that’s a little better suited for clay, it’s hard not to like him to cover a 2.5-game spread.

Pick: Arnaldi -2.5 Games (-111)