Picks Game - Wrap up

Monday, July 09, 2007 /by

Once more, with feeling.Picksgame_2

A tournament spinning out of control, rescued (in the memories of this fan) by some dramatic quarter finals, a classic underdog meets returning heroine Women's Final, and a clash of the titans Men's final that had sportswriters and fans reaching for the superlatives section in the thesaurus.

Still, all this is covered elsewhere.  How did we do with our Picks?

Not bad, in the end.  With moderate confidence, the Tribe called both Finals correctly (75% and 74% for Venus Williams and Federer, respectively).  The Tribe also went 3/4 in the semis - no surprises there, but a huge collective black eye, with 100% (!) of the Tribe expecting Justine Henin to make the final.

Overall, the Tribe correctly predicted 47 out of 61 matches for 77%, just under the 51 for 61 performance at Roland Garros (84%).  I believe this is statistically insignificant (I will check), so I'd say the Tribe did about as well in the two tournaments.

Interestingly, the Tribe actually did better than the "naive" strategy of just picking the top ranked player.  The naive strategy, or NS, was right about the coinflip Monfils - Davydenko (51% went for year of Gael), and 55% picked Hewitt to knock off Djokovic.

But 96% of us were right in taking Hewitt to get past Canas, and we also picked Tsonga to get past Lopez and Baghdatis to knock out Davydenko.

And after taking Sharapova by 74% over Venus Williams (O ye of little faith!), the Tribe then picked Williams all the way to the crown, with 63%, 83% and 75% favoring her to beat the higher ranked Kuznetsova, Ivanovic and Bartoli on her way to a fourth crown.

Individuals also did very well.  Before I talk about the top performers, I have to acknowledge that it was extremely difficult because of schedule changes and rain delays to stay up with the Picks Game.  One was never quite sure, for long periods of the tournament, who would be playing when.  My thanks to all who stuck with the game, exhibiting great good humor as well as dedication along the way.

Assuming that my tally is correct, we have a winner - kiwibee, whose 46/15 just edged Beckham's 45/16.  Here's your final Leaderboard:

All            Count             Wins           Losses        Percent
Tribe 61 47 14 77%
kiwibee 61 46 15 75%
Beckham 61 45 16 74%
patrick 61 44 17 72%
Matt Zemek 60 44 16 73%
lbk77 59 43 16 73%
Andrew 61 42 19 69%
Dragonfly 60 42 18 70%
Arvydas 56 42 14 75%
Joy 53 42 11 79%
Madame 59 41 18 69%
lilly potter 58 41 17 71%

In the individual tournaments, these Pickers stood out:

Women            Count              Wins          Losses
Matt Zemek 31 24 7
Tribe 31 23 8
Beckham 31 22 9
kiwibee 31 22 9
Dragonfly 30 22 8
lbk77 29 22 7
patrick 31 21 10
Joy 29 21 8
Men            Count              Wins           Losses
Celia 30 24 6
kiwibee 30 24 6
Tribe 30 24 6
Beckham 30 23 7
patrick 30 23 7
Andrew 30 22 8
Jess 30 22 8
Arvydas 29 22 7

Tribe - Men Tribe - Women
Federer (89%) - Ferrero Henin (72%) - S Williams
Roddick (79%) - Gasquet Bartoli (64%) - Krajicek
Djokovic (52%) - Baghdatis Ivanovic (52%) - Vaidisova
Nadal (52%) - Berdych V Williams (63%) - Kuznetsova

<>

Tribe - Men                                  Tribe - Women
Federer (90%) - Gasquet Henin (100%) - Bartoli
Nadal (74%) - Djokovic V Williams (83%) - Ivanovic

Tribe - Men

Tribe - Women
Federer (74%) - Nadal V Williams (75%) - Bartoli

We had two upset picks: kiwibee was alone in picking Tipsarevic over Gonzalez (R32), and Arvydas correctly saw that Bartoli would defeat Jankovic (R16).

Nominations for awards (one per person):

Overall: kiwibee.  Men's:  Celia.  Women's:  Matt Zemek.  Upset: Arvydas.

Thanks to all for keeping the faith and playing.  See you next time.

-- Andrew

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