Far be it from me to suggest that Serena Williams isn’t going to end up No. 1 in the world at the end of 2013, although the trick I’d really like to see her pull off is completing a calendar-year Grand Slam while finishing No. 4, behind Vika, Maria, and Caro.
Now that would be impressive.
But it still leaves open the question of who among the young American women is most likely to emerge as Serena’s successor. Serena is 31 years old and has experienced more than a fair share of injuries and other tribulations. Sometime soon, somebody is going to have to take her place, just like the American men have to find a leader now that Andy Roddick is gone.
The ATP Top 100 includes six active Americans, while the women have 10. But if you take No. 3 Serena out of the picture, the highest-ranked is No. 21 Varvara Lepchenko.
Forget about the prospect of a new American Grand Slam champ for now. The real question about is this: How many Top 10-quality women does the nation have? Realistically, this is the area in which you can hope for the most movement by American women in the coming year.
The USA also has 13 women in the second 100 of the WTA, but one whom deserves special mention in ranked No. 498, Taylor Townsend. She has a junior Grand Slam singles title on her resume (along with three in doubles) and is the first American woman to hold the year-end No. 1 junior ranking since Gretchen Rush in 1982.
Townsend is just 16 and turning pro in January, but there’s a caveat worth nothing. Diplomatically described as “sturdy,” or “Serena-like,” Townsend has been the subject of considerable controversy surrounding her weight and/or state of fitness (note that this wasn’t an issue for the young Serena, which is worth thinking about for those most disposed to a charitable view of Townsend’s heft). I guess we’ll see how well Townsend holds up to the pro grind soon enough.
Moving on to the best among the Top 100:
Varvara Lepchenko (No. 21, age 26): She made great strides last year, starting from a ranking of No. 127. An immigrant from Uzbekistan and now a U.S. citizen, she’s a 5’11” lefty with a power baseline game. The thing she most needs to cut her ranking in half—or better—is greater consistency.
While Lepchenko has had some great wins, she’s also suffered some puzzling losses. But that’s not particularly worrisome when you look at how far she’s come, and the adjustments she’s had to make en route to being a seed-quality Grand Slam player. Lepchenko works with the USTA, and is considered a model protégé. You have to love her attitude and desire.
Venus Williams (No. 24, age 32): It’s well-documented by now that if 40 can’t exactly be called the “new 30,” 35 just might qualify for that distinction. And if you think another Venus resurgence is out of the question, keep in mind that in her last two tournaments of 2012, she lost a squeaker to then-No. 6 Angelique Kerber in the second round of the U.S. Open (6-2, 5-7, 7-5), and won Luxembourg. Venus took out top seed Roberta Vinci there, as well as Mona Barthel. Still, she’s the elder stateswoman among the Americans and can’t do much for the future.
