One of the most interesting questions as we head into the second ATP Masters 1000/WTA Premier Mandatory tournament of the year (Miami) is, simply put, “Is the old order breaking down?”
It’s a valid question on both tours, and a legitimate issue that’s been in play at both of the top-drawer events played so far, the Australian Open and Indian Wells.
The Australian Open spawned the first men’s champion—No. 8 seed Stanislas Wawrinka—seeded outside the top four since Juan Martin del Potro won the 2009 U.S. Open. And there was a surprise women’s finalist Down Under, No. 20 seed Dominika Cibulkova.
Granted, two of the usual ATP suspects contested the men’s final a few days ago at Indian Wells. But only half of the “Big Four” made it to the semifinals, and tournament was rife with upsets and surprises. On the WTA side, the chaos was complete. Despite featuring every noteworthy player but Serena Williams, the winner was 32-year old Flavia Pennetta, who embarked on 2014 barely within the seeded-player bubble at No. 29.
Most astonishing to me, though, are these two statistics: None of last year’s women’s Indian Wells quarterfinalists made it that far this year, and that only two of this year’s men’s quarterfinalists were seeded in the top eight (No. 2 Novak Djokovic and No. 7 Roger Federer).
Given where the game is today, it’s not a stretch to suggest that we could see eight different names engraved on the eight Grand Slam singles trophies. The only major that seems to be a gimme for any player, male or female, is the French Open. Federer is sure to win that one again.
Relax, I’m joshing.
But even that customary Rafael Nadal win in Paris seems less certain now than in years past. Nadal is approaching the point where he might be described as “injury-plagued,” and at some point the sheer weight of his amazing record in Paris in May is going to become too much to bear.
Of course, there’s a good chance Nadal may put a damper on this overall theme once the tour moves to European clay. But in the meantime, and with Serena returning to action this week, it will be interesting to see if Miami will add to and confirm this trend. The draw gods seem favorable to it, so let’s see how this assault on the familiar order might continue.
Draw: Updated daily on TENNIS.com