Final Preview: Serena Williams vs. Caroline Wozniacki

“We were saying when the tournament started, we're like, ‘Yes! We're in separate sides of the drawing!’, so hopefully we can meet in the finals. It would be great if that were to happen. . . When she's on fire, she's hard to beat. But I have had two tough matches against her the last few weeks. I was really close. Hopefully for me that would be third time's the charm.”—Caroline Wozniacki, commenting on meeting top-seeded Serena Williams in the U.S. Open final.

NEW YORK—One of the more intriguing questions about the women’s final is: Can it be that No. 10 seed Caroline Wozniacki, a former No. 1 famous for never having won a Grand Slam title, is sandbagging her bestie—and the owner of 17 Slams?

It may seem a preposterous idea, but look at the record. Wozniacki has won but once in nine attempts. Before she and Williams declared themselves best of friends earlier this year, Wozniacki had won just one set and a grand total of 19 games in three previous meetings.

But they’ve met twice since then, both last month, and Williams barely eked out three-set wins, one 6-4 in the third (Cincinnati) and the other 7-5 in the third (Montreal). “I definitely expect another close match,” Williams said after she won her semifinal. “She knows my game well and knows how to play. She’s so consistent.”

That consistency will will pose a real threat to Williams, for Wozniacki has been on a dramatic upswing for months now. She’s 19-3 since the end of Wimbledon (including those aforementioned losses to Williams) and playing some of the best tennis of her life. Her confidence has been blossoming anew. It’s as if someone turned back the clock to 2010 in order to give Wozniacki another crack at validating that top ranking with a win in at least one Grand Slam event.

Now that Wozniacki is training to run the New York City marathon (it takes place in a few weeks’ time), her always excellent defense is marked by even greater quickness and stamina. And her service return has been sharp—she didn’t miss a single return in her match last week against former French Open finalist Sara Errani. The only set that Wozniacki has lost so far at this event was to a peer, Maria Sharapova.

All of this ought to set alarm bells ringing in Williams’ mind, despite the fact that she hasn’t lost a set during this tournament and has hit 23 more winners in her matches than Wozniacki. For one of the markers of this strange and somewhat unsatisfying season for Williams has been her own struggle with confidence at big events. Even at this tournament, she has sometimes looked like a reluctant champion.

Williams needs to be sharp and decisive and alert from the very start of this match, because while Wozniacki’s offense presents no threat, she’s more than capable of winning on the strength of her counter-punching and defense. Wozniacki needs to return well (or benefit from a poor serving day by Williams), and Williams needs to play first-strike tennis when the Dane is serving to keep out of long rallies.

The emotional factor is hard to predict, but Williams has a soft spot in her heart, and if she doesn’t find a way shield it for a few hours on Sunday, Wozniacki could pull off the upset. Williams has come a long way in these past two weeks; I think she’ll capitalize on this chance to end a frustrating year in a blaze of glory.

Winner: Serena Williams