Indian Wells Previews: Serena vs. Simona caps a fine Friday of play

INDIAN WELLS, Calf.—The road to the final four at the BNP Paribas Open has led us here: To a day session featuring two men’s quarterfinals, and a night session featuring two women’s semis. Here’s a quick look ahead at all four matches.

Berdych doesn’t have a great, or even a good, record against the Big 3, but he’s not a guy they enjoy facing, either. If you put the serve, forehand, and backhand together, the Czech is a bigger hitter than all of them, and he can take the initiative against any of the three. Berdych himself has speculated that his style bothers Federer; probably the fact that he said that bothers him even more.

Federer is 12-6 lifetime against Berdych, and he won their last meeting, in three sets, in Dubai last year. But the two are 3-3 since 2011. Berdych has also won their last two meetings at the majors. On the one hand, that shows he can beat Federer on big occasions; on the other, the three-of-five format played in those events won’t apply here. Over the last three years, Federer has had more success at Masters events than he has at majors.

Both men have played well so far in 2015; in their first three matches here, Berdych has dropped one set, Federer none. Both should be rested, and I’m not sure either of them has an advantage on Indian Wells’ slow, gritty hard courts. So who’s going to win? I’ll say the better player. Winner: Federer

Eventually, Milos is going to get Rafa, right? A 24-year-old who is pushing his way toward the Top 5 is bound to get at least one win over someone four years older, don’t you think? Raonic almost got Rafa the last time they played, on a similar surface in Miami last year, before Nadal came back to win 6-4 in the third.

In this case, though, it’s also possible that “eventually” could mean something much more drawn out. In their previous four matches, Rafa didn’t drop a set. If Raonic doesn’t win with his serve, it’s hard to see how he gains any traction against Nadal, especially on a slow hard court that the Spaniard has always liked.

Raonic and Rafa have both looked good here, and neither has dropped a set. As he was body-slamming Tommy Robredo in the last round, I had a brief vision that this event could end up being Raonic’s long-awaited Masters breakthrough. It’s not impossible, but that vision grew distinctly more cloudy when Nadal came out and body slammed Gilles Simon later that day. “Eventually” never has to mean “today.” Winner: Nadal

A battle of the Bollettieri girls. Jankovic and Lisicki have played five times, and the steadier JJ has won four of them, including all three on hard courts. Each came to Indian Wells with losing records for the season, and both must be a little surprised to be playing each other for a spot in the final. So far here Jankovic has reminded us of her fleet-footed glory days of old, while in her last match, a down-to-the-wire win over Flavia Pennetta, Lisicki showed a surprising unwillingness to collapse. That seemed new for her. Can she repeat it? Jankovic is the safer bet. Winner: Jankovic

These two have played five times, and Serena has won four of them. Oddly, they split blowout wins at the WTA Finals in Singapore last year—Halep won their round-robin match 6-0, 6-2, before Serena quickly and convincingly turned the tables a few days later in the final, 6-3, 6-0.

Halep can move with Serena, and almost hit with her. The Romanian has also shown her grit in a series of three-set wins this week. But at 5’4”, she has to punch upward, and player bigger than normal, to stay with her more powerful opponent. Serena hasn’t steamrolled the field so far at Indian Wells, but she has made sure that nothing has gotten out of hand in her much-publicized return here, either. She doesn’t want that return to end without a title to go with it. Winner: S. Williams