Early Tests on La Terre Battue

The stories in both French Open singles draws are the same: The cream has risen. On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are in the top quarter; on the women’s side, Serena Williams may have to contend with Victoria Azarenka, Caroline Wozniacki, and her sister Venus just to reach the semis.

In other words, it’s going to get interesting early. Here’s a look at how the women’s event might play out. (View the entire draw here.)

Azarenka has been cursed with tough draws this season, but it seemed that once she lifted herself back into the Top 32 and earned a Grand Slam seeding, she would be safe. No such luck: The former world No. 1 is scheduled to face the current No. 1, Serena, in the third round. Or maybe that is good luck. We know that if you’re going to knock off Serena, who went out in the second round at Roland Garros last year, it’s probably going to happen early.

Serena also comes in to this Slam a little more vulnerable than normal. She says she had a slow start, preparation-wise, to the clay season, and she hasn’t caught up yet. Williams was beaten badly by Petra Kvitova in Madrid and had to pull out of Rome with an elbow injury. Still, I think if she does face Azarenka on Chatrier, Serena will treat it like a Slam final or semi—i.e., she’ll play well, and win.

On the other side, Wozniacki, while she’s ranked No. 5, hasn’t been past the third round at Roland Garros since 2010.

First-round match to watch: Venus Williams vs. Sloane Stephens

Next question: We know that Petra Kvitova can beat anyone when she’s in Madrid or at Wimbledon; now can she, at age 25, add Roland Garros to that short list of homes-away-from-home? She’s been to the semis here once, but this year her draw makes a second deep run seem plausible. The other seeds in her half are Irina-Camelia Begu, Timea Bacsinszky, and Madison Keys, who just pulled out of a tune-up event with an elbow injury.

Even better for Kvitova, the top seed on the other side is Eugenie Bouchard. The Canadian, as we know, has had a horrid 2015, but she did show signs of life in Rome, where she nearly beat Carla Suarez Navarro. But even if she does right herself for this tournament, Bouchard would be a long shot in a quarterfinal against Kvitova.

Sleepers: Karolina Pliskova and Svetlana Kuznetsova. The Czech and the Russian are in Bouchard’s half.

First-round match to watch: Bouchard vs. Kristina Mladenovic. The Frenchwoman upset No. 2 seed Li Na in the first round here in 2014.

Players of Interest: Taylor Townsend and Belinda Bencic. These two future stars have good draws.

What do we think of Simona Halep’s chances? On the plus side, she almost won the tournament in 2014, she’s had a strong 2015 overall, and at this point she should feel as if a Grand Slam title is within her grasp. On the minus side, because she doesn’t automatically overpower her opponents, she’s not immune to the odd upset on an off day—she can, in other words, get down on herself.

Halep could get a little down looking at her draw: The first seed she’s scheduled to face is the woman who pulled off one of those odd upsets over her earlier this month in Madrid, Alizé Cornet. But if she makes it past the Frenchwoman, Halep could be in the clear. Agnieszka Radwanska and Ana Ivanovic, each of whom has been mired in season-long slump, are two of the seeds in this quarter.

Player of Interest: Caroline Garcia. The Frenchwoman, who snuck onto safe ground as the No. 31 seed, has never done much at her home Slam. This time she’s slated to play Ivanovic in the third round.

The cream rose on thew women's side, as I said, but some of it sank to the bottom as well. Maria Sharapova, Carla Suarez Navarro, Angelique Kerber, Garbine Muguruza, and Sam Stosur are all in the last quarter.

Despite a tough draw, Sharapova, champion in Paris last year and champion in Rome last week, remains the favorite to reach the semis. She’s 4-0 against her opening-round opponent, 49th-ranked Kaia Kanepi, and 14-2 against Stosur, the first seed she could face. But that one could be interesting: The Aussie led Sharapova by a set in Paris last year before folding.

On paper, the other side looks like a three-way duel between Suarez Navarro, a quarterfinalist in Paris in 2014; Muguruza, who beat Serena here last year; and Kerber, a woman who has won two clay titles this spring, and beat Sharapova in one of them.

Name to say, if not remember: Oceane Dodin. The French wild card starts against Kurumi Nara.

First-round match to watch: Stosur vs. Madison Brengle. The American can play on clay, and nearly beat Stosur in their only meeting.

For more 2015 French Open coverage, go to our tournament page:

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