Eternal Questions in the Eternal City

The transition from Madrid to Rome takes just 24 hours—the women are skimming across the clay at the Foro Italico as I write this—but that’s still enough to time to register the fundamental, if perhaps only temporary, shift that has taken place on WTA tour over the last week. In Madrid there was certainty and authority, in the form of an undefeated Serena Williams, at the top of the draw. (See draw here.) In Rome, now that Williams has been defeated, there is flux and intrigue in every bracket. Nothing, and no one, feels quite as certain now.

Here’s a look at the intrigue that lies ahead this week, and a stab at predicting an increasingly unpredictable future.

Is one loss enough to make us bet against Serena in Rome? She warned us more than once in recent weeks that she didn’t have her clay feet under her yet; is there still time for her to get fully comfortable on the dirt? History says yes. Williams is the two-time defending champion here, and last year she withdrew from a quarterfinal against Petra Kvitova in Madrid before rolling through the field in Rome.

As in Madrid, this is a tightly packed draw of 56 players, with eight of the Top 10 in action (missing are Nos. 9 and 10, Agnieszka Radwanka and Andrea Petkovic). No one gets a pass, including Serena. In her opener, she could play a mildly resurgent Sam Stosur. In the third round, she could face home favorite Sara Errani, who nearly beat her a few weeks ago on clay. And her quarterfinal might come against Ana Ivanovic or Karolina Pliskova.

Also here: Belinda Bencic

First-round match to watch, or at least contemplate: Sloane Stephens vs. Sabine Lisicki

In Madrid, the ultra-loaded section was at the top of the draw; in Rome it has landed in the second section. Maria Sharapova, Caroline Wozniacki, Victoria Azarenka, Angelique Kerber, Caroline Garcia, and Madison Keys are all crammed into these 16 slots.

As in Madrid, Sharapova and Wozniacki are slated to collide in the quarters. Sharapova won that match in three sets with what I thought was her best hitting of the season. But it turned out to be a blip rather than a signal: In her next round, a straight-set loss to Svetlana Kuznetsova in the semis, Sharapova was off her game again. We’ll see which Maria arrives in Rome, though if 2014 is any indication, a strong result here isn’t essential for her. She lost early to Ivanovic at the Foro before going all the way at Roland Garros. This time the highest seed in her section is Madison Keys.

As for Wozniacki, while she was her usual solid self in Madrid, she didn’t play with the same increased aggressiveness that she had shown the week before in Stuttgart. I had chalked some of that improvement up to her work with Arantxa Sanchez Vicario, but it looks like that, too, is a thing of the past: Wozniacki and Sanchez Vicario have announced a “pause” in their nascent partnership. Caro can use the help this week. She will likely start against Azarenka, and if she survives that, she could face Kerber.

Player of Interest: Azarenka. She missed Rome last year, but reached the final in 2013. She's going to keep getting better, but how quickly can she bounce back from the disappointment of her defeat to Serena in Madrid?

First-round matches to watch: Keys vs. Madison Brengle; Kerber vs. Alizé Cornet

Possible second-round match to watch: Wozniacki vs. Azarenka

Among all the questions of the week ahead, the most pressing concerns Petra Kvitova. How seriously should we take her win in Madrid? The dirt there is obviously her favorite; Madrid is the only clay event that she has won (this year and in 2011), and last year she followed up a semifinal run at the Caja Magica with a first-round loss in Rome. On the plus side, she’s in better shape than ever in 2015, and her draw is manageable. Kvitova will start against one of two Italians, Karin Knapp or Francesca Schiavone; the next-highest seed in her half is Jelena Jankovic; and the next-highest seed in her quarter is Eugenie Bouchard. We've seen what happens when they play.

Kvitova, as we know, can lose to anyone, but the player in this section who is most likely to give her trouble at the moment is Carla Suarez Navarro. She has won their last three meetings.

Could Use a Win: Bouchard. She lost her opener here last year before making the semis in Paris; but that’s not a scenario she should look to try to repeat. A fourth-round contest with Suarez Navarro would be a rematch of their very close quarterfinal at the French Open last year.

Our final question of the day: Where does Simona Halep stand? Last year, she pulled out in the second round in Rome after reaching the final in Madrid. This year she’s probably not going to want to leave town early. After ascending through the spring on hard courts, Halep has come back to earth on clay so far, losing to Wozniacki in Stuttgart and Cornet in Madrid. But Rome has been good to her before. Halep had a breakthrough week at the Foro two years ago, when she came out of qualifying to reach the final.

This year, Halep’s road back to a final would be shorter, but not necessarily easier. Venus Williams is a potential third-round opponent, and Ekaterina Makarova, who beat her in Melbourne, is slated to face her in the quarters. I thought Halep tried a little too hard to force the issue from the baseline in Madrid’s quick conditions; we’ll see if she has more success balancing patience and aggression in Rome.

Also here: Svetlana Kuznetsova. The Madrid runner-up will face Monica Puig, and, if she has enough energy left to win that one, Makarova in the second round.

First-round matches to watch: V. Williams vs. Garbiñe Muguruza; Flavia Pennetta vs. Elina Svitolina

Semifinals: S. Williams d. Azarenka; Suarez Navarro d. Halep

Final: S. Williams d. Suarez Navarro