Who Has the Magic Touch?

In theory, the women’s draw in Madrid shouldn’t be all that suspenseful. So far this year, world No. 1 Serena Williams has been perfect, and everyone else hasn’t. Now Serena is back, seemingly injury-free, at the Caja Magica, a place where she has traditionally excelled.

In reality, though, there’s a lot to watch for in Madrid on the women’s side. All of the top players are here, packed tightly—and in a few cases cruelly—into a draw of 64. More than that, a lot of those top players have something to prove after getting off to slow starts this season. Now, at one of the tour’s four top-level Premier Mandatory events, they have their chance.

Talk about being packed tight: Mini-sections of draws don’t come more jammed up than the top sixteenth in Madrid.

To start, Venus Williams and Victoria Azarenka face off in the first round. Isn’t it time for Vika be seeded somewhere? This match-up is too soon, and too tough to call: Venus has a 4-1 record against Azarenka, and has had the better season so far, but Vika won their only meeting of 2015, in three sets in Doha.

It will be out of the frying pan and into the fire for whoever wins that one: Venus’ sister, Serena, looms in the third round, but that's not all. In the opening round, Sloane Stephens will play Bethanie Mattek-Sands in a rematch of their three-setter, won by Stephens, in Charleston last month; and Belinda Bencic will play Ajla Tomljanovic in a next-generation square-off.

As for Serena herself, she’s been winning so regularly that she seems to need to create a few motivating losses in her own mind. She described her recent three-set Fed Cup victory over Sara Errani as a wake-up call; it showed her, she said, that she had work to do on clay. Maybe it’s a good thing she got that call, because Serena doesn’t have an easy opener against fellow American Madison Brengle, who reached the semis in Stuttgart last week.

A Serena-Venus third-rounder would be good for the media, of course, but we could also use a Serena vs. Vika revival; they haven’t played in 16 months.

The other side of this quarter isn’t quite as loaded, but it will give us a chance to see whether Ana Ivanovic, who is just 6-6 since the start of the Australian Open, can steady the ship on clay. She’ll start against wild card Alexandra Dulgheru.

Also here: No. 10 seed Carla Suarez Navarro, of Spain. She may already be praying that someone else knocks off Serena before she has to face her in the quarters.

First-round matches to watch: V. Williams vs. Azarenka; Stephens vs. Mattek-Sands; Bencic vs. Tomljanovic

This section is led by No. 4 seed Petra Kvitova and No. 5 seed Eugenie Bouchard. Last year they were in the Wimbledon final; this year they’re struggling mightily to find the form that took them there.

Kvitova has cited exhaustion as an early-season issue. Whatever the reason, she's surrendered any momentum she built up through 2014—the Czech skipped Indian Wells and Miami and lost her first match last week in Stuttgart. On the plus side, Kvitova likes the relatively quick clay in Madrid. She won the title in 2011 and lost to Simona Halep in three sets in the semis last year.

If anything, Bouchard’s 2015 has been an even-mightier struggle. She comes to Madrid having lost five straight matches, all of them to players ranked outside the Top 60. Bouchard has slumped before and turned it around quickly, and you have to think that she and coach Sam Sumyk will do it again eventually. Will Madrid be the place? Last year she lost in the first round to a tough opponent, Agneiszka Radwanska; this year she’ll start against Barbora Strycova, no slouch in her own right. (The former BZS seems to be just BS now—hopefully that's not a bad sign.)

Opportunities, it would seem, abound in this quarter.

First-round matches to watch: Andrea Petkovic vs. Flavia Pennetta; Sabine Lisicki vs. CoCo Vandeweghe; Bouchard vs. Strycova

Just when you thought the talent might start to spread itself a bit thin, here comes a quarter with No. 3 Maria Sharapova, No. 5 Caroline Wozniacki, No. 9 Radwanska, and No. 14, with a bullet, Karolina Pliskova.

From a predictive standpoint, Sharapova and Wozniacki have opposing strengths and weaknesses at the moment. Maria won this tournament last year, and has been a reliable winner on clay for four seasons now. But she has been off her game of late, even on dirt; she lost her opener last week in Stuttgart, where she was the three-time defending champion. Sharapova will try to stop that mini-slide when she faces Timea Bacsinszky in her first match.

Meanwhile, Wozniacki, who has been a threat to no one on clay in recent years, revamped her game on the surface and nearly won the title in Stuttgart. Can her new clay coach, Arantxa Sanchez Vicario, make her a contender for the French Open? We’ll get a better idea here. Caro will start against Jarmila Gajdosova.

Could Use a Win (or Two, or Three): Radwanska

Players of Interest: Pliskova and Caroline Garcia, both of whom are on Sharapova’s side.

First-round Match to Watch: Sharapova vs. Bacsinszky

Simona Halep, the tournament’s second seed, has been a bright spot among the Top 10 this year, but even she had her momentum stalled in Stuttgart, where Wozniacki wore her down in three sets in the semis. This is an important week for Halep, who looked tired and was plagued by a stiff back in Germany. From a physical standpoint alone, the Madrid-Rome-Paris trifecta will be a test for her.

Last year, Halep was one set from the title in Madrid, so we know she doesn’t mind the Caja Magica and its brand of clay. This year she’ll open against Alizé Cornet, could play Lucie Safarova in the third round, and is scheduled for a quarterfinal rematch with Ekaterina Makarova, the woman who helped spark Simona’s recent run of good play by beating her at the Australian Open.

Also here: Madison Keys, Garbiñe Muguruza

Player of Interest: Angelique Kerber. She has won two straight events on clay. What are the chances she keeps that run alive in Madrid? Anything would better than last year, when she had to retire in her opener.

Semifinals: S. Williams d. Kvitova; Wozniacki d. Kerber

Final: S. Williams d. Wozniacki