TENNIS.com Top 25: 8/26/15

Each month, Ravi Ubha will reveal his latest assessment of the tours in the TENNIS.com Top 25. This list is not a reflection of actual ranking points gained or lost, but a combination of each player's current form and past pedigree—along the lines of the Top 25 polls in U.S. college football and basketball. (For the ATP and WTA rankings, click here; for our previous Top 25, click here.)

An amusement park rests fairly close to the venue for the Western & Southern Open. But when it comes to Roger Federer, his results in Cincinnati can’t be likened to a roller coaster. He, instead, stays at the top. No swoons.

Federer leads the way in this month’s Top 25, the final installment before the U.S. Open.

It all worked out perfectly for Federer. After skipping Montreal, an early loss in Cincinnati would have meant virtually no prep for Flushing Meadows. But there was no surprise exit for him in Cincy. He’ll be refreshed entering the year’s final major. Are more half-volley return approach shots in store?

Here we go. It is, potentially, two weeks and a bit until Williams becomes the first player since Steffi Graf to complete the Grand Slam. She’s handled everything thrown her way at the majors this year, but this, likely, will be a different kind of pressure. That said, who would dare bet against her?

Going two tournaments without a title constitutes a slump for Djokovic. Andy Murray outlasted him in Canada and Federer is, quite simply, the King of Cincinnati, with its slicker conditions. Still, Nole is without question the man to beat at the U.S. Open.

Despite an unexpected loss to Russian ball-crusher Teymuraz Gabashvili in Washington, it was job done for Murray in the build-up to the U.S. Open—he finally ended his long losing streak to Djokovic with a win in the Montreal final. That’s a big step.

Bencic and Williams head into the U.S. Open as the hottest players in the WTA. What the Swiss did in Toronto was impressive enough, taking out a handful of former Grand Slam winners and finalists. Even more majestic was the teen turning right around and winning two matches in Cincinnati. Alas, she then had to retire.

Hardcourts proved to be the tonic for Halep. Having titled in Shenzhen, Dubai, and Indian Wells, she subsequently reached the finals in both Toronto and Cincinnati. But now comes crunch time. Can the Romanian overcome her Grand Slam troubles?

Last year, Nishikori was in doubt for the U.S. Open with a toe injury. He played and landed in a first Grand Slam final. Skipping Cincinnati with a hip problem—the physical issues persist for the Japanese baseliner—he’s hoping for a similar outcome in New York this year, no doubt buoyed by beating Rafa for the first time in Canada. And don’t forget, Nishikori won in Washington.

Isner habitually plays well in the U.S., but this was arguably his best summer stretch, going 11-3 with a title and one other appearance in a final. But what does it all mean for the U.S. Open? Recent results will take on less significance if Isner can’t bypass the third round.

Things got progressively worse for Kerber in her three tournaments since Wimbledon, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. She won in Stanford, didn’t play badly in Toronto (beaten by Halep in three sets), and fell to the surging Bencic in her Cincinnati opener.

Only the eventual champions downed the Serb in both Canada and Ohio. Thus she’ll be hoping to maintain her momentum in the Big Apple. Her renewal of acquaintances with Nigel Sears appears to, based on results, be going well.

One of the victims of the cheap shot heard ’round the world, Wawrinka rebounded nicely enough in Cincinnati. He’d trade a lopsided loss there to Djokovic for a better result if they meet at the U.S. Open. If he’s mentally ready for New York—and he claims to be—it’s hard to see him not reaching the quarters, at the very least.

Rebounding—mentally more than anything else—was always going to be tough for Muguruza after Wimbledon. Sure enough, she lost both of her matches. That said, Lesia Tsurenko came in as an in-form qualifier in Toronto, and Yaroslava Shvedova played like the Top 30 player she should be in Cincinnati. Still.

Azarenka's turbulent 2015 continues. Having pulled off two good wins in Toronto, all the world must have thought she'd then oust Sara Errani. It didn't happen. She was then forced to retire in Cincinnati after having beaten Caroline Wozniacki for a fifth straight time.

Svitolina says she loves New York, and the feisty Ukrainian will be entering the U.S. Open full of confidence—assuming her retirement Monday due to a back complaint isn’t serious. Struggling against the Top 10, she did defeat Lucie Safarova prior to exiting to Serena in Cincy.

Safarova hasn’t exactly capitulated since the French Open, but the Czech has blown some leads—first to CoCo Vandeweghe at Wimbledon, then to Daria Gavrilova in Toronto. She was, too, on the receiving end of a rare Top 10 win for Svitolina. Perhaps this is her week in Connecticut.

It’s the first blip of what’s been, overall, an outstanding season for Bacsinszky, who now falls back to the Swiss No. 2 after Bencic’s burst. Her loss to Alison Riske in Toronto must have especially hurt, since Bacsinszky couldn’t serve it out at 6-5 in the second set, with two match points.

Dolgopolov continues to prove that he is, with his shot-making, a great entertainer. And after his semifinal run in Cincinnati, he’s back closer to where he belongs in the rankings, given his ability. Just missing out on a seeding at the U.S. Open, none of the big boys will want to see him in the first week.

Svitolina may be ranked higher than her countrywoman Tsurenko, but the latter packs the bigger game. And after a few years of struggling, it seems like Tsurenko has settled down on tour. A maiden title in Istanbul was followed by a quarterfinal showing in Toronto—as a qualifier.

“So when are you going to win that first title?” Stephens won’t be asked that anymore following her run in Washington. A quick turnaround and tough opponent in Toronto—Dominika Cibulkova—led to a first-round loss up north, but Stephens recorded two good wins in Cincinnati, over the talented but underachieving Mona Barthel and Carla Suarez Navarro.

Vintage Rafa it wasn’t, but Nadal scrapped his way to the title in Hamburg. The win in Germany didn’t seem to have a knock-on effect, however, since Nishikori beat the Spaniard convincingly in Canada and Feliciano Lopez rallied against Nadal in Cincinnati. His form for Flushing Meadows is difficult to gauge.

If feeling healthier, you wonder if Sharapova should have taken a wild card into the Connecticut Open. But that, of course, would curtail if not eliminate all of her promotional activities in New York this week. No one knows how she’ll fare at the U.S. Open.

Jankovic’s car ran out of gas a few years ago in Cincinnati, but she had plenty in the tank this year at what could be her most successful tournament. In nine trips to Ohio, she’s only failed to make the quarterfinals twice. She did, however, get some help from Karolina Pliskova, as the Czech blew a 5-2, third-set lead in the third round.

Losing to the ever-dangerous Dolgopolov in Cincinnati was no shame for Berdych, and it happened in the quarterfinals, not the first or second round. But he’ll be disappointed with his outing in Montreal, where Donald Young ousted him in his opener.

While nagging injuries have played a part, Goffin’s 2015 record tells you that he’s found it difficult to sustain success at the highest level. Yet the exciting Belgian had a good past few weeks, reaching the final in Gstaad, playing a competitive match against Nishikori in Canada, and extending Djokovic to three sets in Cincinnati.

Karlovic became only the second man to pass the 10,000 ace mark earlier this month, and he powered past the likes of Milos Raonic, Gilles Simon, and Jerzy Janowicz in Montreal and Cincinnati. It could have been even better for the 6’10” Croat, who held match points against Jeremy Chardy in Montreal and led Wawrinka by a set in Ohio.