Where Does Kei Factor?

If you happened to tune into Thursday night’s match in Montreal between Kei Nishikori and David Goffin, you might have mistaken the broadcast for a video game. The two players, both of them in the 5’10” range, both in their mid-20s, both with ultra-clean ground strokes and similarly absorbent two-handed backhands, belted perfect cross-court line drives at each other for what felt like minutes at a time. There wasn’t a wasted centimeter of motion between them. It was modern tennis played at the highest level of difficulty.

But while these two avatars looked nearly identical, one of them always proved just a little stronger, or quicker, or just plain better, when it mattered. World No. 4 Nishikori beat world No. 14 Goffin by the close-yet-decisive scores of 6-4, 6-4. Each time Goffin pushed him, Nishikori pushed back with a serve that found the corner, or a backhand that landed a little deeper in the court, or a sudden foray to the net that broke up the baseline pattern and surprised Goffin. Most important, when the long rallies ended, it was usually Nishikori who was in a commanding position in the middle of the baseline, and Goffin who was watching his final shot land just wide of the sideline.

One point, which came near the end of the second set, can stand for all the rest. Goffin, desperate to break back, took a forehand a little earlier than usual and threaded the ball down the sideline. When Nishikori returned that, Goffin took his backhand even earlier and threaded it down the other sideline. When Nishikori returned that, Goffin was at the net to slide a backhand volley crosscourt for what appeared, briefly, to be a winner. But Nishikori returned that, too. In fact, he was there so quickly that he had time to put up a perfect topspin lob for a winner. Goffin had reached his limit, but he couldn’t reach Nishikori’s.

From the start, it looked like Nishikori knew this was how it was going to be. Maybe it’s the fact that he won a tournament last week in D.C. Maybe it’s the fact that he’s ranked No. 4 now. Maybe it’s the fact that we’re approaching the U.S. Open, where he made the final last year. But Nishikori had just a little bit of a swagger about him last night. It was subtle, certainly; no Nadal-like leg kicks or Djokovichian shirt rips. But Kei looked like he knew, when it was over, that he was going to be the winner.

Why wouldn’t he? Nishikori has been doing a lot winning in 2015. With his victory over Goffin, he’s 45-9 on the season, and he has three titles in a variety of conditions—one indoors in Memphis, one on clay in Barcelona, and one on outdoor hard courts in Washington. While he hasn’t replicated that success at the Slams, Nishikori has made himself the master of the mid-level event.

“Yeah, I’ve been feeling pretty good,” Nishikori said this week, in that matter-of-fact way of his. “After, of course, winning the title, you have to feel good. My tennis is getting better.”

“I have a good return,” he continued, when asked how he copes against so many bigger and taller opponents. “I have good speed, too, that most of the big guys don’t have.”

You may get a little swagger out of him on the court these days, but you won’t get much bluster from him in the interview room.

In truth, to watch Nishikori hit is to see a sort of Platonic ideal of today’s game. He’s an ultra-efficient ball-striker from both sides, but unlike taller baseliners like Tomas Berdych or Juan Martin del Potro, there’s nothing mechanical about his strokes. His talent was recognized immediately by two of the game’s most knowledgeable and astute critics, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. After facing Nishikori for the first time, both said that the sky was the limit for him.

On Friday night, Nishikori will face his one of those early boosters again when he goes up against Nadal in a prime-time quarterfinal in Montreal. This is a match that many of us circled when the draw came out last week. The interest will mostly lie on Nadal’s side; where is the 14-time Slam champ’s game now? But this match is every bit as important for Nishikori, both for his season, and, I would venture to say, for his career.

Nishikori is 0-7 against Nadal, though he seemed to be well on his way to winning their last meeting, in the 2014 Madrid final, when he injured his back and was forced to retire. But this isn’t just a case of an improving player trying to measure up to a bigger star; it’s also a case of Nishikori trying to measure up on a bigger stage. Perhaps the most surprising, and disappointing, fact about Nishikori's career so far has been his record at Masters events. He has reached the semifinals of just one in 2015; more strangely, at 25 he has reached only one Masters final (Madrid 2014) overall. Tonight, though, Nishikori, as the higher seed, will technically be the favorite against Rafa.

“I think we are still young,” Nishikori said this week when he was asked why the players of his generation haven’t had more success against the Big 4, or in the most significant tournaments. “I think mentally we have to be a little more strong, more patient. You have to really focus in especially important points. That’s what they are good [at doing].”

Part of Nishikori’s issue is physical; he’s been slowed by a multitude of injuries over the years, and he might be lucky just to make it to the U.S. Open without another one. But I’ve wondered in the past whether his next step will have to be psychological as well. Will this mild-mannered player feel as if he hasn’t fulfilled his potential even if he never makes it to the winner’s circle at a major? Does Kei believe, as Rafa and Roger did, that the sky’s the limit for his talent? When it comes to tennis’ champions, the answers to all both questions are usually an emphatic yes.

Nishikori is in the Top 4 now, and he showed a hint of big-dog self-assurance against Goffin last night. But can he keep that confident attitude against a member of the Big 4? Can he go deep at something more significant than a mid-level event this year? Those are the next questions for Nishikori, and we’ll find out the answers tonight.