The sky would seem to be the limit for the world No. 1 in 2016. He’s coming off one of the half-dozen best men’s seasons of the Open era, in which he finished one victory shy of the first men’s calendar-year Grand Slam since 1969. As it was, Djokovic had to settle for three major titles, a record six Masters 1000 titles and an 82–6 record. He reached the final of every tournament he entered after January. “Overall it’s been as close to perfection as I can get,” said Djokovic after winning his fourth consecutive season-ending championship.
Is there any reason to think that Djokovic will slip from these stratospheric heights? He’ll turn 29 in May, which in this era is still considered a player’s prime. He nearly doubled his closest competitor, Andy Murray, in ranking points last season, and the one player who seriously challenges him, Roger Federer, will turn 35. Djokovic has been the most consistent winner on tour for the last five years, and that’s unlikely to stop in 2016.
But that doesn’t mean he’ll win as much. After his last sublime season, in 2011, Djokovic struggled to come through in the biggest matches—in particular, Slam finals—for a couple of years. Could that old issue resurface? A lot may depend on whether the man who beat him in a few of those big matches, Rafael Nadal, resurfaces to challenge him again.
Djokovic may not match his winning percentage from 2015, but over the long haul of a season, he’s far and away the game’s most reliable player. And so far, he’s only gotten stronger with age. How often can you say that two major titles in one year feels like a lock?
In 2011, Djokovic won three major titles; over the next three years, he managed only one per season. As steady as the Serb has been, he hasn’t always been the best closer.
He’s due for a lull, but is anyone close enough to his level to take advantage for more than one match?
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