For full coverage of the season's first Slam, go to our tournament page.

When is the right time to go with a feeling, and when is the right time to stick with cold, hard logic? That’s the question that comes to mind when trying to predict a winner in this year’s Australian Open men's final, between the No. 1 and 2 seeds, Djokovic and Murray. There’s a feeling, at least to me, that this could be Murray’s moment. First, Djokovic’s fellow No. 1, Serena Williams, was upset in the women’s final by Angelique Kerber. Then, a few hours later, Murray looked on as his brother, Jamie, won his first Grand Slam men’s doubles title. Can we interpret these as positive indicators for Andy? Will the fact that’s he’s about to become a first-time father inspire him? By now, if you’re in the Murray camp and your man is facing Djokovic, you’ll latch onto any reason to hope, no matter how faint or far-fetched.

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But as I said, logic, as well as a mountain of evidence, argues against this feeling. Djokovic has won 10 of their last 11 matches, their last three meetings at Grand Slams, and the three times they’ve faced each other in the Aussie Open final. Murray says he's serving better and moving forward more than he did when he played Djokovic in the final in Melbourne a year ago. If anything, though, Djokovic has raised his game even higher over that span, and he enters this match at something of a career peak. While Murray was a little fortunate to escape Milos Raonic in five sets in the semifinals, Djokovic played some of the best tennis of his career to beat Roger Federer. The last time Djokovic and Murray played at a major, in the 2015 French Open semis, Murray was brilliant for two sets. But not for three. I have a feeling something similar could happen on Sunday.

Winner: Djokovic