Before each day of play at the Australian Open, we'll preview and predict three must-see matches. For full coverage of the season's first Slam, go to our tournament page.
One of these players is the favorite, to put it mildly. Williams and Radwanska have played eight times, and Radwanska has won a total of one set. Serena has reached the semifinals at the Australian Open on six previous occasions, and has won the tournament all six times. For good measure, she’s coming off a top-level performance against Maria Sharapova. Yet I still think this could be a compelling match. Radwanska took that lone set from Serena on a big stage, the 2012 Wimbledon final, and Aga has been on a roll over the last few months. At the start of the tournament, I thought Radwanska was in Slam-winning form. She may still be, but Serena really isn’t going to want to lose her second straight semifinal at a major.
Winner: Williams
While the men's semis each get an evening to themselves, the women’s are jammed together into a single afternoon. That means Kerber and Konta, for the first time in the event, must come back without a rest day. While neither was pushed to a third set in the quarterfinals, the sudden change in routine can have an effect; just ask Radwanska, who came out flat and stayed that way against Dominika Cibulkova in the 2014 semis here. As for this matchup, Kerber and Konta have never faced each other. Both are obviously in fine form and have beaten quality opponents over the last 10 days. But while the sixth-ranked Kerber hasn’t been to a Grand Slam semi in four years, the 47th-ranked Konta has never been to one at all—she had never even qualified for the Australian Open main draw before this year. Kerber is the better player, but Konta should be able to go toe to toe with her from the baseline. If she does get a lead, can the Brit, who describes herself as “tightly wound,” finish the job and put herself in a major final?
Winner: Kerber
Federer traditionally comes into his Grand Slam matches against Djokovic playing what we like to call full-flight tennis. At Wimbledon last year, he soared over Andy Murray in the semis, and he did much the same thing against Stan Wawrinka in the same round at the U.S. Open. Both times, though, Djokovic brought Federer back down to earth in a four-set final. So while Federer has been flying once again Down Under—he’s dropped just one set so far—he’ll be in an entirely different, and more difficult, situation against Djokovic, and he knows it. The courts are a little quicker in Melbourne this year, and the roof may be closed for this match; both of those things should help Federer. But the evening time slot will slow the conditions, which should help Djokovic. And while Federer looked good against Tomas Berdych in the quarters, Djokovic may have been even better against Kei Nishikori. Novak’s biggest advantage is that this is a three-of-five-set match; he’s won their last three meetings in the extended format, dating back to 2012. Federer has the weapons to win, but he needs to make himself believe that he can still beat Djokovic on this kind of stage. Last year, he wasn't convinced.
Winner: Djokovic