Four-Card Monte

It has been a tale of two halves so far in Monte Carlo.

The top of the draw has been filled with surprises. No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic lost his first completed match of the year, to 55th-ranked Jiri Vesely. As if that wasn't stunning enough, the player who ultimately took advantage of the opening was the typically inopportunistic Gael Monfils. In the other quarter, No. 3 seed Roger Federer was passed at the finish line by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a man who usually comes up a foot or two short.

The bottom half, meanwhile, has felt like old times. Dealt a tough draw on paper, No. 5 seed Rafael Nadal has begun his clay season by shredding it. He comes to the semis after beating a potential future French Open champion in Dominic Thiem, and last year’s French Open champion in Stan Wawrinka, both in straight sets. Now Rafa will face off against No. 2 seed Andy Murray, who has slowly worked his way into dirt-worthy form over the course of his first three matches, and finished on a high note with a 6-2, 6-0 drubbing of Milos Raonic in the quarters.

Here’s a look ahead at Saturday’s semifinals, and who each half might send to the final.

Do you prefer “Rafandy” or “Murdal?" I like the latter myself; these two guys have played some murderously exhausting matches. While their rivalry is perhaps the most one-sided among the Big Four—Nadal leads 16-6—it’s also the most underrated, in my opinion, for three reasons.

—Nadal and Murray play interesting points. While they’re both baseliners and defenders at heart, they’re also creative with their shot-making. That combination produces extended all-court rallies that rarely feel repetitive or one-dimensional. Two of their most entertaining matches came in Monte Carlo, in 2009 and 2011; Rafa won both, but not before Murray put the result in doubt.

—There’s a psychological question embedded in each of their meetings: Can Murray stand up to Nadal? Murray knows that if he redlines his game, he has the ability to control the action against Rafa; it’s a question of whether or not he believes he can do that for two full sets. Murray has jumped to early leads against Nadal in the past—most recently in Rome two years ago, when he won the first set 6-1—only to succumb to a relentless Rafa comeback in the end. In their last meeting on clay, in the 2015 Madrid final, Murray never lost belief, and ended up easing to a 6-3, 6-2 victory.

—Having known each other since their junior days, the two seem to have a genuine mutual respect. Maybe that’s helped, at least partially, by the fact that they’ve never had to face each other in a Grand Slam final. Either way, rather than dulling the edge in their matches, it somehow makes them more enjoyable and easier to watch.

While Murray routed Nadal in Madrid last spring, I’d say this match is more likely to play out one of two different ways: a close contest in which Murray grabs the momentum for a set, but finally surrenders it, or a one-sided win for Nadal in which things start badly for Murray and get worse from there. It’s plausible that we could see a repeat of Rafa’s 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 win in their French semi from two years ago. Looking at both scenarios, it seems clear that a strong start is crucial for Murray.

However it ends up, this will be a good gauge for both guys heading toward the French Open. Neither is the favorite in Paris this time, but a title in Monte Carlo would turn one of them into a strong second choice.

Winner: Nadal

Mon-Jo? Tsonfils? Willy-G? This matchup offers a lot of possibilities in the moniker department, as well as the highlight-reel department.

Still, only in France, or a principality very nearby, would Tsonga and Monfils nab the headline spot over a match featuring two members of the Big Four. But Jo and Gael fill the bill nicely. This isn't just a matchup between countrymen; it’s a matchup featuring two of the most entertaining athletes in any sport.

You know what I have to say next, right? Tsonga and Monfils also happen to be two of the most frustrating athletes in any sport. From set to set or game to game, you never know what’s coming next from either of them, and just when you think they’ve turned a corner in terms of competitiveness and concentration, they turn right back. As of Friday, though, each of them has reached that promising corner once again. As they enter their 30s, Jo-Willy (he’ll turn 31 on Sunday) and La Monf (he’ll be 30 in September) seem poised to make a run at their home Slam in Paris next month. Both of them meant business on Friday.

Against Federer, Tsonga rallied from a set down and 0-30 in the final game to win 7-5 in the third. Jo saved his best stretch of the match, and possibly the tournament, for 5-5 in the decider, when he broke Federer with a nerveless forehand pass.

As for Monfils, while he has benefitted immensely from Djokovic’s defeat in Monte Carlo—his wins have come over a murder-less row consisting of Gilles Muller, Paolo Lorenzi, Jiri Vesely and Marcel Granollers—this result isn’t a one-off. He’s had a good, and surprisingly pragmatic, season so far. Monfils bounced back from 0-3 down in the second against Granollers and closed the match with a hiccup-free love hold. Just when we thought Gael was going to turn back into Gael, he ... didn’t.

Going by the numbers, Tsonga is a slight favorite. He’s ranked higher (No. 9 to Monfils’ 16) and leads their head to head 4-2. But Monfils won their last meeting, in Miami last year, and they’ve never faced each other on clay. I’m going to guess, with the full knowledge that I might be giving him too much credit, that La Monf has one more corner to turn this week.

Winner: Monfils