Rogers Cup Women's Preview: Second Tier Takes Its Shot

Which is tougher for a top-level event to endure: Losing three of the Big Four on the men’s side, or Serena Williams, the No. 1 player on the women’s side? On Sunday, the Rogers Cup found out that it would be suffering through both situations this week, when Serena, citing shoulder inflammation, withdrew from Montreal. Just as unfortunate, as far as the WTA’s future goes, is the absence of defending champion Belinda Bencic. Since cracking the Top 10 earlier this year, the young Swiss has been an injury waiting to happen.

At this point, tournament officials should just be happy that world No. 2 Angelique Kerber, who has been dealing with a balky elbow, didn’t follow Serena out the door and on to the Olympic Games in Rio.

Kerber says she’s OK to play, as are the rest of the WTA’s top tier—that includes Garbiñe Muguruza, Agnieszka Radwanska, Simona Halep and, for the moment at least, new world No. 6 Venus Williams. Here’s a look at the Montreal draw, and who might play the best while the best woman is away.

With Serena’s exit, Muguruza moves to the top bracket. Is that a development that she’ll embrace? History says probably not. Last year, after reaching the Wimbledon final, Muguruza lost in the second round in Toronto and struggled to win a match until the fall. This year her post-victory slump may already be underway; Muguruza followed her French Open win with a rapid flameout at Wimbledon. She won’t have an easy road back to normalcy in Montreal: Muguruza could play Monica Puig to start, and Stanford champion Johanna Konta after that.

Also here: Dominika Cibulkova. The honeymoon for Domi ended quickly, but she must have been pleased with her semifinal run in Stanford last week.

First-round matches to watch:

Konta vs. Shelby Rogers. The Brit just won her first title; the American upset Eugenie Bouchard here two years ago.

Bouchard vs. Lucie Safarova

Semifinalist: Cibulkova

The last time the WTA came to Montreal, in 2014, Radwanska played Venus Williams in the final. This time the No. 4 and No. 6 seeds could meet in the quarters. If they do, the advantage will be with Venus; while Aga beat her in Montreal two years ago, Venus is 3-0 against her since, and the 36-year-old, who wants to peak for her fifth Olympics, has been playing resurgent tennis since Roland Garros. Venus has been so resurgent, in fact, that it wouldn’t come as a surprise if she pulls out of Montreal after reaching the final in Stanford on Sunday.

Also here: Madison Keys and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Each of these big hitters has an interesting first-round opponent to contend with: Keys will open against Wimbledon semifinalist Elena Vesnina, while Pavlyuchenkova takes on French Open quarterfinalist Yulia Putintseva.

Semifinals: Keys

Is it time for a Halep surge? The signs point in that direction. Last year’s Toronto finalist is typically invigorated by the hard courts of North America, and she has ruled herself out of the Olympics, which means she should be one of the few players who is all in for Montreal. Still, there are a couple of potential roadblocks for her in this section. Halep could play Daria Gavrilova in her opener; she lost to the Russian-turned-Aussie in Rome in the spring. And if she reaches the quarters, Halep might face Svetlana Kuznetsova; Sveta is 3-3 against Simona, and she won their last meeting, in Sydney in January.

Also here: Petra Kvitova, Karolina Pliskova

Semifinalist: Halep

From a physical and a mental standpoint, Kerber comes in as a question mark. Will her elbow allow her to play effectively? Just as important, how will she approach this tournament, which comes in between two much bigger events? At Wimbledon  she reached the final, and at the Olympics she must feel that she has a good chance to take home her first medal.

If Kerber is ready, her draw makes her the favorite to win the whole thing. Roberta Vinci, a quarterfinalist here last year, is the second-highest seed in this section. The first seed that Kerber could face is Elina Svitolina. Last year Kerber and Halep played a murderous third-rounder; maybe we’ll get a rematch in the semis this time.

Semifinalist: Kerber

Semifinals: Keys d. Cibulkova; Halep d. Kerber

Final: Halep d. Keys