Women’s Preview: Serena Williams the U.S. Open favorite, but just how prohibitively?

Serena Williams remains the favorite, that’s a given. The question this time is whether she is still the prohibitive favorite, the way she typically has been over the last four years. I’m going to say...not quite. Yes, Serena won Wimbledon, but she also lost early at the Olympics and has been nursing a shoulder injury. And there are a few other players—Angelique Kerber, Simona Halep, Madison Keys—who have been inching closer in recent months. All of which means that, rather than a presumed coronation, as we had on the women’s side in 2015, we’ll have a competitive event. Here’s a look at how the draw may shake out.

We’ll get a very good idea of where Serena is, shoulder-wise and otherwise, in her first-round match against Ekaterina Makarova. The two played in the semifinals at the Open two years ago, and two years before that Makarova beat Serena in straight sets at the Australian Open. Serena has had her struggles in first rounds before, but I’m thinking the (presumed) night-session atmosphere will help the American more than it does the Russian.

That won’t be the last land mine in Serena’s field as she moves toward through this quarter. She could face 29th-seeded Ana Ivanovic and 16th-seeded Sam Stosur, each of whom has beaten Serena at a major. Most dangerous of all could be a quarterfinal showdown No. 5 seed Simona Halep. As usual, this 2015 Open semifinalist has had a burst of confidence on U.S. hard courts this summer.

Also here: Daria Kasatkina, Elena Vesnina

First-round matches to watch:

—Halep vs. Kirsten Flipkens

—Lucie Safarova vs. Daria Gavrilova

Semifinalist: S. Williams

Agnieszka Radwanska is the No. 4 seed, but history says she won’t live up to that billing; she has never been past the round of 16 at Flushing Meadows. Who is most likely to take her spot in the semifinals? How about No. 6 seed Venus Williams? History isn’t on her side, either. Yes, she’s won this tournament twice, but she hasn’t seen a semi there since 2010.

Who else? Karolina Pliskova is the 10th seed and is coming off the biggest win of her career, in Cincinnati; but her career record at the Open is just 2-3. Anastasia Pavlychenkova has had a good year, but she hasn’t been past the third round in Queens since 2011. Timea Bacsinszky? She has been a Grand Slam semifinalist, at Roland Garros in 2015, but she is just 4-7 at the Flushing Meadows. Are you getting the feeling this section could be up for grabs?

Also here: Eugenie Bouchard, and the Kiki’s, Bertens and Mladenovic

Semifinalist: V. Williams

The top two seeds here are Garbiñe Muguruza and Madison Keys, and you know that means: We’ll take it day by day.

Muguruza has given us her best (French Open) and worst (Australian Open, Wimbledon, Olympics) this year. Judging from that list, you’re probably better off penciling her in as a early loser than as the eventual champion. Especially if she faces 32nd-seed Monica Puig in the third round. Puig beat Muguruza 6-1, 6-1 on her way to the gold medal in Rio.

To be fair, while Keys is erratic from one point to the next, she has been a steady big-match player this season, reaching the second week at the French Open and Wimbledon, and finishing fourth at the Olympics.

Also here: Belinda Bencic, Barbora Strycova, 51st-ranked Caroline Wozniacki

First-round matches to watch:

—Keys vs. Alison Riske

—Coco Vandeweghe vs. Naomi Osaka

—Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Francesca Schiavone, for old time’s sake

—Johanna Konta vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands

Semifinalist: Keys

Angelique Kerber’s first shot at becoming No. 1, in Cincinnati, came and went quickly. What effect will it have on her at the Open, where she have another? At first glance, the No. 2 seed’s early draw should help her get back on track; she opens against 116th-ranked Polona Hercog. On second glance, though, is that first-rounder as easy as it looks? Their last meeting was in 2011, but Herzog won it. Tougher for Kerber could be a third-round match between either Petra Kvitova or Elina Svitolina.

Also here: Roberta Vinci, Irina-Camelia Begu, Dominika Cibulkova, Christina McHale

First-round match to watch: Kvitova vs. Jelena Ostapenko

Semifinalist: Kerber

Semifinals: S. Williams d. V. Williams; Kerber d. Keys

Final: S. Williams d. Kerber