We all remember what happened the last time these two met in a Grand Slam final, at the French Open in 2015: Wawrinka played lights-out, career-best tennis and handed Djokovic his only loss in 28 matches at the majors that season. Then the two met twice more that year, and Djokovic restored order with two fairly routine wins. He’s 19-4 against Wawrinka now, but I’d say the more relevant number is 8-2. That’s Djokovic’s record since the two played a fourth-round, five-set, five-hour classic at the 2013 Australian Open. The Serb won the match, but the Swiss’ career was born anew that day.
This will be their first meeting of 2016. Lucky for us it will be at a Slam; since their five-setter in Oz three years ago, all of their major-event showdowns have been memorable. This time they took very different paths to get to the final. Djokovic has been the beneficiary of a withdrawal, two retirements and, in the semis, what looked at times like a semi-retirement from Gael Monfils. Meanwhile, Wawrinka has been doing battle since the third round. After saving a match point against Daniel Evans, he beat Illya Marchenko, Juan Martin del Potro and Kei Nishikori, all in four sets.
Whose path has left him in a better position for the final? Djokovic will be rested, certainly, but it’s hard to know what kind of form he’s in. Even as he was beating the mysterious Monfils, his game misfired periodically. As for Wawrinka, he has competed fiercely at Flushing Meadows—nobody has sweated as much as Stan. And by the latter stages of the Nishikori match, he had worked himself into one of his scary hitting grooves. It kind of reminded me of how he looked ... when he played Djokovic in the French final last year.
Winner: Wawrinka