Previewing and predicting the Shanghai Masters, where the stretch run to London begins

By the time the men reach the year’s eighth Masters event, in Shanghai, the race for No. 1 is typically all but over. During the last 10 years, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have made a habit of clinching that spot early. Halfway through 2016, after winning two majors and three Masters titles, Djokovic looked set to run away with the race again. But things have turned around in the second half of the year. While Djokovic still leads by roughly 1,500 points in the Race to London, he has a lot to defend this fall. At the same time, world No. 2 Andy Murray has closed the gap considerably, and he spent the weekend winning in Beijing, a tournament that Djokovic has traditionally owned. That makes Shanghai far more intriguing than it was two months ago. Here’s a look at the draw, and how it might play out.

The most important question of the week will be which Djokovic we see. Will it be the dominant player we’ve come to know over the course of this decade, the one who has won this tournament three of the last four years? Or will it be the semi-burned-out player that Djokovic himself described last month, the one who failed to win either Wimbledon or the U.S. Open for the first time since 2013? If it’s the latter, he won’t have an easy time playing himself into form. The courts in Shanghai are quick, and the field is first-rate, as always.

But Djokovic’s draw isn’t a bad one. Stan Wawrinka is in the other half, Tomas Berdych is the highest seed in his quarter and his opening-round opponent is Fabio Fognini. Djokovic is 7-1 against the Italian, and hasn’t lost to him since 2006.

Players to Watch:

Nick Kyrgios: He’s coming off his third title of the season, in Tokyo. Will he be tired? Or inspired? Or satisfied? He’s a potential quarterfinal opponent for Djokovic.

Grigor Dimitrov: He reached the Beijing final, and could face Djokovic in the third round.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

It’s safe to say that Shanghai, with its quick courts, is not Nadal’s favorite tour stop. He’s never won the event, and has reached the final in the city just once, in 2009. Last year Rafa reached the semis, only to suffer a rare loss to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga; this year he’s coming off a subpar singles effort in Beijing, where he went out to Dimitrov (before winning the doubles with Pablo Carreño Busta).

Like Djokovic, though, Nadal can’t be displeased with his draw. Marin Cilic is the second-highest seed in this quarter, and Roberta Bautista Agut is the first seed he could face.

Player to Watch:

Tsonga: Last year’s runner-up, he could play Rafa again in the quarters.

Qualifier of Note:

Taylor Fritz: He faces Stephane Robert to start.

First-round matches to watch:

John Isner vs. Alexander Zverev

Bautista Agut vs. Bernard Tomic

Semifinalist: Tsonga

Should we expect more from Wawrinka after his U.S. Open win? It’s probably a question we should table until the next major. While Stan has three Slam titles, he has won just won Masters 1000 event in 86 career attempts, and that was in Monte Carlo, which is the only one that isn’t mandatory. So in many ways, a Wawrinka title in Shanghai—where he has never been past the quarters— would be a bigger surprise than his victory at the Open.

Also here:

Milos Raonic

Semifinalist: Wawrinka

Murray has won in Shanghai twice, but he has also lost twice to Djokovic here. In 2012, they played one of their best contests, a three-set final in which Murray held match points; last year, though, Djokovic won easily, 6-1, 6-3. Judging by his form in Beijing, Murray stands a good chance of going deep and getting another shot at Djokovic. He’ll start against either Martin Klizan or Steve Johnson; the latter gave Murray all he could handle in Rio this summer. After that, the three seeds in this quarter are Gael Monfils, David Goffin and Lucas Pouille; Murray has a 9-2 record against them collectively.

But this section also includes a wild card—the wildest of all, in fact: Juan Martin del Potro, who will face Goffin in the first round. How will Delpo, who reached the Shanghai final in 2013, do in his first ATP event since the Open? He could play Murray in the quarters. Their last two meetings‚ a Murray win at the Olympics and a Delpo win in Davis Cup play, have been epics.

Semifinalist: Murray

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Tsonga; Murray d. Wawrinka

Final: Murray d. Djokovic