Raonic is the kind of player that most opponents dread facing. His powerful serve takes the racquet out of your hand when you’re returning. But Murray, ever the contrarian, relishes facing the big servers that everyone else fears, and that includes Raonic. Murray is 8-3 against the Canadian, and he has won their last seven meetings, including five this season alone. Yet Raonic shouldn’t feel hopeless in his cause; he led Murray two sets to one in the Australian Open semis, and by a set in the Queen’s Club final.

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Still, he faces an uphill climb here. There’s a simple reason why Murray, a counter-puncher by nature, thrives against big servers: He has an excellent return, and the challenge of fending off 140-m.p.h. bombs seems to energize him rather than intimidate him. The question on this day may be whether Murray—who was won 22 matches in a row—feels any extra nerves, knowing that he likely needs to win this match to have a chance to finish No. 1 for the first time.

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Winner: Murray