Miami Open Women's Preview: Are we in for more surprises down south?

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Welcome to Florida Week! As the tours head southeast for the Miami Open, TENNIS.com and Baseline will feature all things Sunshine State. You’ll learn about the personalities, stories, teams and venues that have made Florida one of the tennis capitals of the world. We’ll also be reporting from the Miami Open in Key Biscayne.

As you’ll learn this week, when it comes to tennis, Florida isn’t just a state—it’s a state of mind.

Let’s try this again. For the second straight tournament, the women are lacking top-level stars; Serena Williams, defending champion Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova will be absent in Key Biscayne. But the news isn’t all bad. This weekend, in the Indian Wells final, Elena Vesnina and Svetlana Kuznetsova showed what the WTA can do without a star in sight. Here’s a look ahead at the second big U.S. hard-court event of the spring. Will we have a final as surprising as the last?

With Serena out, the focus will be on Angelique Kerber again. Her slow start to 2017 continued last week with her loss to Vesnina in Indian Wells, but it hasn’t hurt her in the rankings yet. Even after that defeat, she re-ascended to No. 1 in the world this week. Is she ready to play like one? If Kerber’s 2016 season is any indication, she may not turn everything around in Miami, but she should show signs of life. Last year, she shook off her post-Melbourne hangover to reach the semifinals.

Doing that again may not be so straightforward, though. Kerber could get an early rematch with Russian teen Daria Kasatkina, who has already beaten her twice this year. Also in Kerber’s quarter are Kuznetsova, Venus Williams, Kristina Mladenovic and 2015 surprise Miami finalist Carla Suarez Navarro.

Semifinalist: Mladenovic

What’s up with Simona Halep? After a strong second half on U.S. hard courts in 2016, one might have expected her to pick up where she left off in Indian Wells, a tournament she won two years ago. Instead, she continued her early-season slump by losing to Mladenovic in the third round. Halep has yet to win two matches in a row in 2017. As with Kerber, though, Miami would make sense as a turnaround tournament for her. She reached the semis there in 2015, and the quarters in 2016. Her draw this year should make a similar run possible. The seeds near her are Ekaterina Makarova, Caroline Garcia and Sam Stosur.

On the other side of this section are two 2016 Miami quarterfinalists, Johanna Konta and Madison Keys. Both have moved steadily up the rankings over the last two years. Is it time for one of them to win a Premier Mandatory title like this? Konta was brilliant at the Australian Open in January, and Keys, while she’ll likely still be rusty, has the game to beat anyone on a hard court. The Brit and the American could meet in the fourth round.

Semifinalist: Konta

Garbiñe Muguruza says she feels good coming back to Miami, and she should. She made an early breakthrough there, and she lost a tight two-tiebreaker match to Azarenka last year. So far in 2017 Muguruza has taken some tentative steps toward her world-beating form of last spring. Can she take a few more with this draw? Her opener, against either Annika Beck or Christina McHale, won’t be a gimme.

Two other names from this section stand out: Caroline Wozniacki and Vesnina. Wozniacki has returned to something close to her steady best in 2017, but historically she has never done as well here as she has in Indian Wells. And how will Vesnina fare after her title-winning week in the desert? Will she be tired, or inspired? She’ll start against either CiCi Bellis or Ajla Tomljanovic.

Semifinalist: Wozniacki

Karolina Pliskova lost in the semis in Indian Wells to Kuznetsova, but I’d say that tournament can be deemed a success for her. In her opener, she snuck past Monica Puig in a match she should have lost; rather than going out early, she posted a respectable result, which is what we want from Top 5 players when they’re not, as Pliskova put it, playing “cosmic tennis.”

In Miami, Pliskova could face another early challenge, from Jelena Ostapenko; the Czech beat the Latvian 10-8 in the third at the Australian Open this year. If Pliskova survives that, she could potentially get an even sterner test from Aussie Open semifinalist Coco Vandeweghe, who has beaten her in straight sets in their last two meetings.

Also in this section: 2012 Miami champion Agnieszka Radwanska. Like Kerber and Halep, Radwanska has been slow out of the gate in 2017. Does she begin to pick up some speed at Crandon Park?

Potential second-round match to watch: Pliskova vs. Ostapenko

Semifinalist: Pliskova

Semifinals: Konta d. Mladenovic; Pliskova d. Wozniacki

Final: Pliskova d. Konta

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