Previews: Federer v. Nadal, Djokovic v. Kyrgios, Pliskova v. Muguruza

Before each day of play at Indian Wells, we'll preview and predict three must-see matches (and for today’s edition, a bonus fourth match). For full coverage of the season's first Masters, go to our men’s and women’s tournament pages.

Novak Djokovic [2] vs. Nick Kyrgios [15]

Djokovic played what he—correctly—called the best tennis of his season on Tuesday night against Juan Martin del Potro. I’d say it was the best he’s looked since the semifinals of last year’s French Open. Can he reach those heights again 18 hours later, against a guy he lost to last week in Mexico, who is eight years younger, and who was finished with his straightforward two-set match well before Djokovic went on court last night? There’s no question it will a tough turnaround for Djokovic, but I think he’s going to be up for it. One loss to Kyrgios is understandable; two straight would get under his skin. And the five-time Indian Wells champ loves these courts as well as any others. Winner: Djokovic

Rafael Nadal [5] vs. Roger Federer [9]

Has Federer-Nadal XXXVI come a little too soon? This is the first time they’ve met before the quarterfinals in 13 years, and they just played a classic Australian Open final six weeks ago. But even if these aren’t the ideal conditions, we’ll take their match-ups wherever they come. They’re also due for a good one at Indian Wells. Their two meetings here—Federer won easily in 2012, Nadal won just as easily in 2013—were blowouts marred by injury. Which is too bad, because this would seem to be as close to neutral ground as the two could find. The surface is hard, which favors Federer; but it’s slow, which favors Nadal.

XXVI will be interesting for a couple of reasons: First, to see what adjustments, if any, each of them makes after their last match. Second, to get an idea of what this rivalry may look like in its (presumably) final phase—will Roger, rather than Rafa, have the upper hand? Either way, I get the feeling they haven’t played their last classic. Winner: Nadal

Karoline Pliskova [3] vs. Garbiñe Muguruza [7]

With the Quarter of Death in full swing on the men’s side, it was tough for the women to make much noise on Tuesday. If a No. 1 player—in this case, Angelique Kerber—loses in Stadium 2 while Djokovic and Del Potro are blasting away in Stadium 1, did it actually happen? It was hard to tell from the lack of buzz surrounding Kerber’s defeat to Elena Vesnina last night.

But this battle of Top 10 sluggers, which is first up in Wednesday’s evening session, gives the WTA a chance for a showcase. Muguruza is the most recent first-time major winner, while Pliskova has the best chance of being the next. As far their head to head goes, though, Pliskova is the one who has jumped ahead. She has won their last five meetings, including a lopsided 6-2, 6-2 victory last month in Fed Cup. Muguruza did push her to the limit at the WTA Finals last fall, and from the way she’s been competing in Indian Wells, I’d expect something similarly tight tonight. Winner: Pliskova

Dominic Thiem [8] vs. Gael Monfils [10]

Thiem and Monfils have played twice, and the Austrian has won each time. Is that a sign of incipient domination, or is the Frenchman due? The latter idea seems more logical. Both of their previous matches went three sets, and they were played on clay and indoor hard courts, two surfaces that slightly favor Thiem. This is the first time they’ll face each other on outdoor hard courts. Each looked sharp in straight-set wins on Monday; Thiem’s came over Mischa Zverev, and Monfils’ over John Isner. Most impressive was the fact that Monfils didn’t need to go to a tiebreaker to beat the big American. Is Monfils’ return of serve, which has traditionally been one of his weaknesses, improving at age 30? If so, he’ll be tough for anyone to beat. Winner: Monfils

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