Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic
We needed some clarity going into Roland Garros, and this is the only match that can bring it to us. Is Nadal, who has been back at his clay-court best so far this spring, the favorite to win his 10th French Open? Only if he shows us he can beat Djokovic. The Serb has won their last seven meetings; all of them were in straight sets, and three of them were on clay. No matter how confident Rafa looks or feels, there’s something about Nole that makes him doubt again.
The reasons have been made clear over the years. Djokovic pounds his returns and pushes Nadal back. His two-handed backhand is strong enough to withstand Nadal’s crosscourt forehand. And his own crosscourt forehand is strong enough to pin Rafa in his backhand corner. But that may be where Nadal can finally turn the tables. His backhand has gradually been improving over the last two years, and it has been very solid in Madrid so far; we’ll see if it can make the difference here. With Djokovic in transition, as far as his coaching situation goes, this may be Nadal’s best chance at a breakthrough against him.
Winner: Nadal
Simona Halep vs. Kristina Mladenovic
On the men’s side, Nadal vs. Djokovic will determine who the French Open favorite of the moment is. The match following it on Saturday will do something similar on the women’s side. The winner of Halep vs. Mladenovic won’t be a clear-cut favorite in Paris; that’s not going to exist this year without Serena. But Halep, as the 2014 runner-up, is certainly among them, and Mladenovic is the most improved player on the WTA side in 2017.
You might think the higher-ranked Halep would be favored in this match, and she is the more accomplished player. But Mladenovic, while she’ll be appearing in her first Premier Mandatory final, has a 3-1 record against Halep, and that includes a 6-3, 6-3 win in Indian Wells two months ago. Mladenovic also knocked off Angelique Kerber and Maria Sharapova on her way to the Stuttgart final two weeks ago.
This one is tough to call. Mladenovic’s confidence is growing and her level is rising each week. But Halep still has the higher ceiling.
Winner: Halep
Dominic Thiem vs. Pablo Cuevas
The nightcap will be a battle of one-handed backhands, and an old-fashioned war of attrition on dirt. Thiem is the younger (23 to 31), higher-ranked (No. 9 to No. 26) and more talented of the two, but Cuevas won their only meeting, at the French Open in 2015, in four ultra-close sets. There wasn’t much to separate them that day, and there probably won’t be on Saturday, either. But while Cuevas can compete with the best of them on clay, Thiem will always have the shot-making edge.
Winner: Thiem
Watch Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal square off in the Madrid Open semifinals—LIVE on Saturday at 10 a.m. ET, only on Tennis Channel.
