Cincinnati Men's Preview: Nadal is only member of Top 6 in the draw

Let’s do it again, shall we? On Monday, the second half of the ATP’s most grueling Masters double began in Cincinnati. But this time there’s a significant difference: Along with Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka, Roger Federer, who hurt his back in the Montreal final, is also absent. That means Rafael Nadal will take over the No. 1 ranking next week for the first time in three years. And it means that there should be room again for another surprise run, like the one Denis Shapovalov made in Canada last week.

Here’s a look at how the deck has been reshuffled so far in Cincy.

Nadal was unhappy with his loss to Shapovalov in Canada, and he was right to be; he didn’t play well. Can that realization, and frustration, help him turn it around this week? If form and seedings hold, his path to the semis will be through Richard Gasquet, Gilles Muller and either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or David Goffin. The question for Rafa right now isn’t how well he plays overall, but whether he can pull through when things get tight. That’s not a problem that started in Montreal; it has been his Achilles’ heel for two seasons now. While he won in Cincy in 2013, he lost in the third round in 2015 and 2016.

First-round match to watch: Goffin vs. Nick Kyrgios

Also here: Kevin Anderson, a finalist in D.C. and a quarterfinalist in Montreal

Semifinalist: Nadal

Dominic Thiem is the top seed in this section, but while he reached the quarters in Cincy last year, his current form is in some question after his loss to Diego Schwartzman last week in Montreal. This week he’ll start against Fabio Fognini.

Also here: Pablo Carreño Busta and Sam Querrey. You might think that America’s Wimbledon semifinalist would be a dark horse at a big stateside event like this, but he hasn’t been out of the second round at this one since 2009.

Out: Kei Nishikori, due to right wrist pain. Lucky loser Janko Tipsarevic will take his place. That makes this quarter a land of semifinal opportunity for half a dozen players.

First-round match to watch: Steve Johnson vs. David Ferrer

Semifinalist: Thiem

How long can Alexander Zverev keep rolling? If he’s not feeling any ill effects from winning 10 matches in two weeks, he’s the favorite to emerge from this quarter. Milos Raonic is the second seed, but he has been injured for much of 2017 and went out tamely to Adrian Mannarino in Montreal. John Isner may be a better bet. He’s been to the Cincy final, and while he’s 0-3 against Zverev, he nearly beat him in Miami this spring.

First-round match for the home folks to watch: Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Jared Donaldson

Semifinalist: Isner

Instead of Federer in the bottom bracket of this section, the other players here will now have to contend with 85th-ranked lucky loser Thomas Fabbiano of Italy. That’s a tradeoff most would take, I think. Most likely to profit from the switch will be Grigor Dimitrov—who reached the semis here last year—Juan Martin del Potro and Jack Sock.

First-round match to watch: Del Potro vs. Berdych. Each has been to the semis in Cincy twice.

Semifinalist: Dimitrov

Semifinals: Nadal d. Thiem; Isner d. Dimitrov

Final: Nadal d. Isner

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