What's at Stake: Previewing the WTA Finals in Singapore

In the spring, the WTA’s perennial No. 1 player, Serena Williams, announced she was pregnant and wouldn’t play the rest of the season. By the summer, it was clear that the woman who had taken the top ranking from her in 2016, Angelique Kerber, wasn’t ready to defend her crown in 2017. That left the WTA’s No. 1 spot wide open for whoever could claim it. The mad scramble was on.

Since then, Karolina Pliskova, Garbiñe Muguruza, and Simona Halep have all claimed the top ranking for the first time. But as the women sprint for the finish line at the WTA Finals this week, the race is still as open as ever. More so: Seven of the eight players in action in Singapore have a chance to finish 2017 at No. 1—only the late-qualifier Caroline Garcia is out of the running.

Who will reach the tape first? And what else should we be watching for in Singapore? Here’s a look at what’s in store, and what’s at stake, for each of the eight contenders.

White Group: Garbine Muguruza, Karolina Pliskova, Venus Williams, Jelena Ostapenko

Garbine Muguruza

Ranking: No. 2

Record vs. rest of group: 6-10

As we can see from the two stats above, Muguruza’s losing record against her White Group opponents belies her top ranking among them. This is the high-powered side of the Singapore draw, and Muguruza hasn’t always been ready to have her own hard-hit shots rifled back at her, especially by Pliskova—the Spaniard is 2-6 against the Czech. But Muguruza says she has improved her defense, and these days she isn’t as hit-and-miss as she once was. While she’s ranked below Simona Halep right now, Muguruza’s size and power, as well as her Wimbledon title, make her the more logical year-end No. 1, and the more likely No. 1 in the future. Now is the time for her grab that future.

Karolina Pliskova

Ranking: No. 3

Record vs. rest of group: 9-3

Unlike everyone else in her group, Pliskova has yet to win a major title. And she knows it: Despite reaching No. 1 this season, she fired her coach, David Kotzya, after he failed to put her in the winner’s circle at any of the four Slams in 2017. Instead, Pliskova will be working with former pro and current commentator Rennae Stubbs in Singapore. Stubbs doesn’t have the pedigree of other coaches, but she should be able to offer something that Pliskova seemed to need in the latter stages of this season: a sense of fun, and a jolt of energy. We can see from her 9-3 record against her group-mates that Pliskova can rise to a challenge, and that her game is big enough to go up against anyone’s.

Venus Williams

Ranking: No. 5

Record vs. rest of group: 5-3

The 37-year-old American first played this event in 1999, and last played it in 2009, but we know she can win a big match or two. In fact, no one has been better in big matches in 2017: While Venus didn’t win a Slam, she reached the finals in Melbourne and at Wimbledon, and the semifinals at the US Open. The question is, how much does she have left after 10 months on tour? Venus is just 1-1 since the US Open, and she’ll have to face the woman who eliminated her at Wimbledon this year (Muguruza), and the woman who eliminated her at Flushing Meadows last year (Pliskova).

Jelena Ostapenko

Ranking: No. 7

Record vs. rest of group: 1-5

Ostapenko is best known for romping through Paris in the spring, but she has been almost as good this fall. She won the title in Seoul, reached the semis at the Premier and Premier Mandatory events in Wuhan and Beijing, respectively, and recorded a win over Muguruza. Now the 20-year-old, who is making her WTA Finals debut, will try to mix it up with the elite on a daily basis. Judging by her record against her fellow sluggers in the White Group, another romp to a big title looks almost as unlikely as it did at Roland Garros.

Semifinalists: Pliskova, Muguruza

Red Group: Simona Halep, Elina Svitolina, Caroline Wozniacki, Caroline Garcia

Simona Halep

Ranking: No. 1

Record vs. rest of group: 6-6

Halep has achieved one goal in 2017: the No. 1 ranking. But she fell just short of another: her first Slam title. A win in Singapore would go a long way toward legitimating that top ranking, as well as giving her more confidence that she can make a breakthrough at the majors in 2018. She should feel comfortable at this event; it’s her fourth straight trip to Singapore. And she should feel comfortable against her opponents; the Red Group is all counterpunchers like her.

Elina Svitolina

Ranking: No. 4

Record vs. rest of group: 6-3

For a Finals rookie, Svitolina comes with some gaudy stats. She’s ranked No. 4; she has won five titles this year; she has a 52-12 record; she’s 6-3 against her group; and she won her most recent meeting with Halep, in Toronto this summer. While she still hasn’t reached a Grand Slam semifinal, Svitolina has a favorable draw and would seem to be well-positioned to finish second in this group and make the semis here.

Caroline Wozniacki

Ranking: No. 6

Record vs. rest of group: 5-5

Wozniacki once reached No. 1 without winning a Slam; for a time this season, it seemed as if she would reach the WTA Finals without winning a final. But on her seventh try in Toyko, she broke through for her lone title of 2017. Yet Wozniacki has still had a remarkable, throwback year: A 56-20 record and those seven finals have earned her a trip to Singapore and a Top 10 ranking for the first time since 2014. Wozniacki is 2-0 against Garcia, but 0-3 against Svitolina. A trip to the semis may come down to whether she can knock off the No. 1, Halep.

Caroline Garcia

Ranking: No. 8

Record vs. rest of group: 2-5

As little as a month ago, no one would have picked Garcia, whose career-high year-end ranking before 2017 was No. 23, to be the last of the eight qualifiers for Singapore. But that was before back-to-back, out-of-nowhere titles in Wuhan and Beijing turned the 24-year-old stalwart of the second tier into an elite player virtually overnight. More important for her chances this week, she beat Svitolina and Halep along the way. Now that she’s had a couple of weeks to come down to earth, can she conjure the same magic again?

Semifinalists: Halep, Svitolina

Semifinals: Pliskova d. Svitolina; Muguruza d. Halep

Final: Pliskova d. Muguruza