Australian Open Final Preview: Roger Federer vs. Marin Cilic

The last time these two faced off in a Grand Slam final, at Wimbledon, I picked Cilic to win. He had been surviving tight matches through the fortnight, and his game seemed to be gathering steam and force. He had also nearly beaten Federer the previous year on Centre Court.

We know how that prediction turned out.

The situation is similar going into the Aussie Open final. As at Wimbledon, Federer hasn’t dropped a set in his first six rounds, while Cilic is winning tight matches and gathering steam again. In the fourth round, he beat Pablo Carreño Busta in a tough four-setter; in the quarters, he lifted his level against Rafael Nadal, and came back from a two-set-to-one deficit; and in the semis, he played with a well-managed aggression in cruising past Kyle Edmund.

That style of play, forceful but not reckless, would seem to be sustainable, and effective even against Federer. If Cilic feels like he has no choice but to attack every ball—as he did against Rafa—and his timing is on, he can beat anyone, on any stage. But that mindset has obviously been the exception, rather than the rule, with him. Against Federer, he's 1-8.

On the Federer side of the net, we can be reasonably sure of what we’re going to get. He hasn’t blown his opponents out over the last two weeks, but he hasn’t given them any reason to hope, either. They’ve typically pushed him to a tiebreaker in one set, but no further, and he comes in having spent six fewer hours on court than Cilic. Federer also hasn’t shown any sign of extra nerves in his last two Grand Slam finals, at last year’s Australian Open and Wimbledon.

The wild card in this match will be Cilic’s mentality. After the spectacle of his blister-inspired panic attack at Wimbledon, will he be more determined than usual to redeem himself with an impressive performance? Or will a respectable loss, with no sideline tears, be enough? One thing is certain: I’m not going to pick him to beat Federer in a Grand Slam final again.

Winner: Federer

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