Women's Bracket Breakdown: Which Parisian possibility will come true?

Steve Tignor is at Roland Garros to cover the 2018 French Open. You can read his women's bracket breakdown here, and all of his reports from Paris here.

PARIS—Who needs favorites? The women’s draw seems as intriguing as ever without them. What you have instead are possibilities: A return to center stage for Serena Williams; redemption for Simona Halep; a satisfying step up from Elina Svitolina or Karolina Pliskova; a feel-good story to end all feel-good stories from Petra Kvitova. Let’s see which one of these fairytales, if any, is most likely to come true over the next two weeks.

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For right now, we don’t have to worry about the final-round phobia that has cost Halep six of her last seven title matches. The question is: can she get out of this section? She may be nursing a bad back, and not overflowing with confidence, but looking at her draw, a trip to the semis seems more likely than not. The second-highest seed here is Caroline Garcia, who has never been to a Slam semifinal. Next is Angelique Kerber, who has never past the quarterfinals in Paris.

But there are pair of hard-hitting Kikis to watch, Bertens and Mladenovic. They can take the rallies to Halep, which she doesn’t like.

Also here: Elise Mertens, one of the stars of this spring.

First-round match to watch: Bertens vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Semifinalist: Halep

WATCH—Halep's pre-tournament presser at Roland Garros

Three-time champion Serena Williams, two-time champion Maria Sharapova, 2016 champion Garbiñe Muguruza, and No. 3 seed Karolina Pliskova have all landed in this section. Pliskova won in Stuttgart and reached the semis here last year; Sharapova made the semis in Rome last week and finally, for the first time in two years, showed that she can still be the player she once was. Serena? She hasn’t had her I’m Back moment in 2018 yet. It may be more likely to come at Wimbledon than Paris, but you know it’s coming.

Also here: Belinda Bencic, Julia Goerges, CoCo Vandeweghe, Magdalena Rybarikova

First-round match to watch: Muguruza vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova

Semifinalist: Pliskova

Svitolina is exactly where she was a year ago: Champion in Rome, and one of the favorites for Paris. And just like last year, she still hasn’t made a Grand Slam semifinal. Can she really win the whole thing without that late-round experience? She says that’s the goal, and that she has accepted the challenge of winning a major, with no excuses. Svitolina’s draw will make her earn it, though. Defending champion Jelena Ostapenko, former No. 1 Victoria Azarenka, Venus Williams, Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka are all here.

Semifinalist: Svitolina

WATCH—Stories of the Open Era, the 1968 French Open

Is it Kvitova’s time in Paris? She’s only been to the semis once here in nine tries, but since January, she has been the WTA player of the year. Judging from her recent comments, she also may have begun to believe in her chances at Roland Garros for the first time. Even Kvitova would probably have to admit her draw gives her a chance. The top seed in this section is Caroline Wozniacki, who is no dirt-baller herself.

Also here: Sloane Stephens, Daria Kasatkina

First-round match to watch: Wozniacki vs. Danielle Collins

Semifinalist: Kvitova

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