Coast to Coast: Osaka's Indian Wells win could lead to US Open success

WATCH—Championship point from Osaka's win over Daria Kasatkina at Indian Wells:

Women’s tennis is in transition. Serena Williams, still in the midst of her comeback from childbirth, remains a factor, but to what degree is unclear. Caroline Wozniacki and Simona Halep, who each won their first Grand Slam titles this season, showed that persistence can pay off. Garbiñe Muguruza, a two-time major champion, is the epitome of a hot-or-cold player—she can overwhlem a strong opponent, or lose quickly to a weaker one. Angelique Kerber, another two-time Grand Slam champ, can still scramble her way to victory, but it’s a big ask against the game’s biggest hitters. And of course, there is Petra Kvitova, who can dominate for stretches but sometimes quickly fades away.

With this top tier, no one really knows what to expect, especially at the US Open. It was there last year that Sloane Stephens came from nowehere to win her first major title. Former breakout stars who now are old enough to make a difference—like Eugenie Bouchard and Belinda Bencic—have either lost confidence (Bouchard) or suffered from injuries (Bencic). It’s a new kind of era in tennis: Anyone can beat anyone, no matter the surface.

That never used to be the case in the women’s game. There were always a few players—Billie Jean King, Martina Navratilova, Chris Evert and Steffi Graf—who ruled the field and won almost every Slam available. Williams has been even more dominant over the years than her predecessors at the top of the game.

But this era won’t last forever, and I think there’s one player who could end it: Naomi Osaka, a 20-year-old with loads of talent, especially on hard courts like those at Flushing Meadows.

Osaka showed how electric she could be on American hard courts this March in Indian Wells, where she won seven matches to win her first title—a WTA Premier Mandatory title, at that. She started out by beating Maria Sharapova in straight sets. Then she thumped Karolina Pliskova, ranked No. 5 at the time, by giving up just five games. Halep, one of the most consistent and defensively gifted players in the sport, won just three games against Osaka. In the final, Osaka continued her dominant roll, beating Daria Kasatkina, 6-3, 6-2.

It was Osaka’s first taste of tournament victory, and it won’t be her last. To me, Osaka has the best chance to own the tour in a way that Williams did. Like Serena, Osaka’s game is big—so big that she can control an entire match, with her opponents left scrambling. That’s the sort of player who can dominate, as long as she maintains proper fitness and confidence. If Osaka stays healthy, she’ll improve those qualities over time.

For now, Osaka remains streaky, but that can work in her favor at the US Open if she has confidence and good health. She also embraces the spotlight, something there is no shortage of in New York. She’ll also have plenty of fan support because of her congenial attitude, humorous post-match conversations and, above all, a remarkable game. It’s one that should at least get her past the third round at the US Open, where she’s never been beyond. And at some point, a much deeper run—maybe even this year.