TENNIS.com Sunday pick:

Roger Federer (SUI)[1] v. Novak Djokovic (SRB)[3]Arthur Ashe Stadium 4:30 pm

Call it Dream Final, Option II. It was the prospect of another Roger Federer-Rafael Nadal final that had the most buzz coming into the event, but Nadal’s knees and David Ferrer took care of that. But this is as enticing, because as Federer himself observed, it’s a meeting between the two best players of the hardcourt summer.

“He is going down,” Djokovic joked before their early-round match in Australia. He then got blown out in three sets.

Thus time, Djokovic comes in not as a cocky upstart but as a genuine challenger. A month ago, he defeated Federer (and Nadal, and Andy Roddick) to win Montreal, which only gives this match more cachet.

Nikolay Davydenko even suggested (in his eccentric English) that Djokovic’s best chance to win the match is to play like Nadal – “if Djokovic can play physically very well, like Nadal, just hitting baseline long rally, can get chance, very good chance to beat him.”

Of course, just because Djokovic can imitate Nadal’s serving routine doesn’t mean he can play like the Spaniard during a match. And with all due respect to Davydenko, it’s probably counterproductive for him to try to. The Serbian was already struggling with his breathing during his semifinal, and now has to come back a day later and take on the No. 1 player in the world. Sunday is expected to be cooler than the sweltering Saturday, but just keeping the ball in play and extending the rallies is unlikely to pay dividends – previous opponents have already made him pay for passive play and he’s expended a lot of energy getting to this stage.

Djokovic is at his best when pulling the trigger early but intelligently, a balance he knows very well how to strike. He can also take confidence from his match against Federer in Montreal, when it was Federer who came up short at crucial moments. Twice this year when Federer has confronted an opponent who beat him in their last match, he’s lost – Nadal and Guillermo Canas.

But this is best-of-five, and a Grand Slam final to boot. It’s familiar territory for Federer – this the tenth straight major where he’s reach the final, and it’s been almost two years since he lost a best-of-five match to anyone but Nadal (David Nalbandian in the 2005 Masters up final).

He’ll be eager to prove a point against a player who’s nipping at his heels – it remains to be seen whether that has a positive or negative effect on his game. It seems unlikely that Federer would go into a funk on such an important occasion, but if he does, Djokovic is not a player who takes any prisoners. Federer was a little scratchy against Davydenko, getting broken three times in the third set. He’ll have to start better than that to avoid giving Djokovic any early self-belief.

A more likely scenario is that Federer plays at his usual high level, Djokovic starts a bit nervous and then can’t climb back up the hill.

The best scenario is that both players play their best, which should result in a long, stirring encounter – but one in which Federer is still likely to prevail. His forehand is still a little bigger, his backhand more varied, his movement more silken, and he’s better at the net. Unless Djokovic plays one of the best matches of his career so far (similar to what he showed against Nadal in Miami) and Federer gives up errors at the crucial stages, the Swiss world No. 1 should be holding the US Open trophy for the fourth year in a row.

Prediction: Federer