By Kamakshi Tandon

MELBOURNE, Australia—Whether he wins or loses, this Australian Open will be about what happens to Roger Federer. For all that he has achieved in seasons past, none have presented the opportunities that will lie before him the next few months. The Grand Slam record, the career Slam, the calendar Grand Slam – even a far-fetched Golden Slam is possible in this Olympic year. A win in Melbourne is key to all that could follow. 

If Federer wins the Australian Open, he will move just one Grand Slam title shy of Pete Sampras’ all-time record of 14. That mark was expected to be unassailable for years to come when Sampras set it at the 2002 US Open, but now it’s hard to imagine Federer not getting there if he triumphs  at Rod Laver Arena in two week’s time.

If he loses, it will be the first time he’s fallen short at a non-clay Grand Slam since the 2005 Australian Open. And if the crown goes to one of his appointed challengers – Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray or David Nalbandian – it may mark the beginning of a post-Federer era foreshadowed by his periods of inconsistency last year. 

“Post-Federer” meaning not that the Swiss maestro will be absent from the top of the men’s game, but that he will no longer be expected to win every non-clay event (and reach the final of every clay event).

But that has yet to happen, and Federer comes into this Australian Open very much as the favorite. He’s short on match play after being sidelined by a stomach virus last weekend, but the draw suggests he’ll have plenty of time to work himself into form during the first week. An inspired Tomas Berdych is the only outside threat, and inspiration has been scarce for the Czech these days. The monster serve of John Isner also lurks, but Isner must first barrel through diminutive magician Fabrice Santoro in an intriguing first-round contest.

Beyond that lies a possible semifinal against Djokovic or Nalbandian – much more compelling because both have beaten Federer in the past and will not lack self-belief going into their next encounter.

Many thought Nalbandian had a chance to win the whole thing after he twice defeated both Federer and Nadal while winning Masters Series events during the fall. But after being struck by a back injury a few days ago, his participation in Melbourne is in doubt. Even if he does play, expect the Argentine to remain a moody performer. “Dangerous when interested” – a label originally applied to Serena Williams, but it fits him just as well.

The irrepressible Djokovic made great strides last year to establish himself as a Slam contender, but exhausted himself and ended the season with a string of poor performances. That puts some pressure on the 20-year-old to show that he is indeed the real thing, and he’ll want to show he’s rejuvenated after the offseason and ready to take advantage of the big moments during the next fortnight.

The two will have to contend with indefatiguables David Ferrer and home favorite Lleyton Hewitt in their quarter, as well as Marcos Baghdatis, the 2006 hero finalist who has been lackluster of late.

Two others who were riding high this time last year – James Blake and Fernando Gonzalez – don’t look quite as convincing these days. But both received end-of-season boost they’re be trying to build on. In Blake’s case, it was his clutch Davis Cup match for the United States December’s final. For Gonzalez, it was his defeat of Federer in their opening round-robin match at the Masters cup in Shanghai. But both feats consisted of just one match – doing well in a Grand Slam requires a sustained level of performance.

The second half of the draw is more open, simply because the top seed, Rafael Nadal, is not quite as dominant a presence as Federer is in the upper half.

Nadal looked like he was hot on Federer’s heels last summer after defeating him in the French Open final and coming very close to doing the same at Wimbledon. But he faded in the second half of last year and later admitted he had been persistently bothered by foot problems. Ironically for an iron-sinewed player whose game is built on sheer physicality, the greatest concerns about Nadal’s career center around his body’s ability to withstand the demands made on it.

The Spaniard’s performance last week in Chennai sent mixed messages about whether he’s back at full strength. On the one hand, he fought and won against friend and mentor Carlos Moya in a thrilling three-set semifinal that took nearly four hours to complete. On the other hand, the match proved utterly draining for a player usually renowned for his fitness – he won just one game in the final against Mikhail Youzhny the next day. So the questions continue about Nadal’s physical level, and the real answers will only come when he begins to contest best-of-five matches under the searing Melbourne heat next week. Strangely, Nadal has never been past the quarterfinals here even though the conditions should be to his liking.
 
One of Federer’s would-be rivals has made a fast start to the year. After a 2007 plagued by injuries and closed with split from coach Brad Gilbert, Murray signalled his intent for this year by winning his fourth career title in Doha last week. He is slated for a possible semifinal with Nadal, but faces a tough opener against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and a potential fourth-round contest with Richard Gasquet. Less likely to pose a threat is Nikolay Davydenko, who reached the US Open semifinals but otherwise has been in a serious slump since becoming tangled in a match-fixing scare last summer. Mikhail Youzhny and giant-serving Ivo Karlovic are two unpredictables in this section.

In Nadal’s quarter is Andy Roddick, who is probably glad not to be in Federer’s half for once. If they meet in the quarterfinals as scheduled, Nadal will still be the favorite but Roddick should have a fighting chance if the second seed is a bit banged up and the courts are playing relatively fast.

Apart from the heat, the new Plexicushion surface could be the biggest wildcard of the month. Originally expected to be faster than the Rebound Ace of previous years, it’s been reported as surprisingly slow by many players. Tennis Australia officials say the surface will get faster as the tournament goes on, which suggests the claycourters may feast on the hot, slower conditions in early rounds but find the tide turning in favor of the bigger hitters during the second week.