2024 Australian Open Men's Tip Sheet: Fliers, Fades and Picks to Win

(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 pm ET on Thursday, January 11)

Fliers

Casper Ruud (+6500): Ruud might not be able to actually come up with the goods and win this tournament, but he has proven he is capable of making deep runs at majors. The Norwegian has made it to the finals of three Grand Slams, and he has one of the most complete games on the ATP Tour. Ruud is also coming into the 2024 season with a better mindset. Last year, Ruud was mentally fatigued from a career year in 2022, and he tried to ramp up a little later in the season. That resulted in him not finding his form until just before the summer. That’s not the case this season. Ruud has come out firing in recent weeks, earning wins over Taylor Fritz and Grigor Dimitrov in one-set matches in the World Tennis League towards the end of December. Then, Ruud went out and beat Tallon Griekspoor, Borna Coric and Adrian Mannarino in straight sets at the United Cup. Ruud has flashed a little more of an aggressive style in the early portion of the year, and that should serve him well on the faster courts at the Australian Open. Overall, Ruud is arguably a top-seven player in the world, so this price seems a little off. If he finds his way into the quarterfinals or semifinals, this price would allow you to hedge and guarantee some profits.

Hubert Hurkacz (+10000): Hurkacz has never made it further than the fourth round at the Australian Open, but a player with his skill set is a threat to do damage at any hard-court event. The 26-year-old has a hold percentage of 88.3% over the last 52 weeks. Only two players on the planet have a better mark than that, and that’s a big part of the reason that only 10 players have won more matches than Hurkacz in that span. When somebody is holding serve as easily as Hurkacz, there is a massive amount of pressure on the opponent to do the same. That leads to nervous service games, and Hurkacz is good enough to break if he is given multiple opportunities. And even if he doesn’t, Hurkacz’s missile of a serve makes him an elite tiebreaker player. The Pole is just a very difficult player to oust at any given event, and he feels like a player that can surprise some people and win a major by the time his career is over. The Australian Open might give him as good of a shot as any, so I like these odds. The same logic applies for Hurkacz and Ruud: just hope they make a run, and then start hedging to set up profitable scenarios.

Fades

Holger Rune (+3000): Getting Rune at this price would have been enticing in the early portion of the 2023 season, but it’s hardly tempting right now. Rune is coming off a great run in Brisbane, where he lost in straight sets against Grigor Dimitrov in the final. The Dane also played some inspiring matches at the ATP Finals last year. But it’s hard to overlook the player that Rune was after Wimbledon last season. He suffered five opening-match losses in the tournaments he played after leaving London, and he was dealing with some back issues throughout the course of that stretch. Rune should get back to playing at an elite level consistently again, as he’s a talented player and seems very determined. He made Boris Becker his coach in October, and he followed that up by bringing Severin Luthi, one of Roger Federer’s mentors, to his team in December. I just need to see it again to believe it with Rune, who is still somewhat unproven in Grand Slams. His fitness has been an issue when it comes to best-of-five-set matches.

Ben Shelton (+6500): Shelton is a player that has a lot of hype heading into 2024, and most of it is warranted. However, it does seem like people are jumping the gun a bit. Shelton still has a lot of growing to do as a player—and the 21-year-old still isn’t as good of a server as he should be considering the velocity he reaches with the ball on his racquet. Shelton is also a shaky returner and simply needs to play more tennis in order to get a better understanding of how to best construct points. It’s just a little unrealistic to expect Shelton to start winning Grand Slams right now. Look for the American to make some strides in 2024, making him a contender to win majors by the time 2025 rolls around.

Pick To Win

Jannik Sinner (+700): I think that Novak Djokovic will win this tournament, but Sinner is my favorite bet to do it. Djokovic’s wrist injury makes it hard to buy into him as a near-even-money favorite. It’s probably something the Serbian can work his way through over the next couple of days, but it’s just not worth betting around +100. As for Sinner, these are generous odds for a player that entered tennis' top tier in 2023. Sinner won his first Masters 1000 title in Toronto last year, and he also finished the season by beating Djokovic twice in the span of a week. Sinner was also in the top five in both hold percentage and break percentage in 2023, a feat that puts him in historic territory. This is just a player that is clicking on all cylinders, and his game is a perfect fit for Melbourne. Sinner’s power from the baseline is going to be tough for opponents to deal with on these quick courts. Sinner feels like he is ready to take the next step, and winning a Grand Slam is what he needs to do that. This major gives him as good a shot as any.