Breaking down the Federer vs. Nadal race for No. 1

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer split the four majors in 2017, and the two are now ranked as the top two players for the first time since March 7, 2011. Back then, Nadal also held the top spot over Federer but their rivalry became a triumvirate when Novak Djokovic announced himself as a threat.

After winning the US Open, Nadal’s impressive year puts him 1,960 points ahead of Federer for the race to the year-end No. 1 ranking that concludes at London’s ATP final. He has compiled a 56-9 record by playing with great health, confidence and improved offensive aggressiveness.

It’s also a great omen for Nadal that the other two times he won the U.S. Open (2010 and 2013), he finished the year as No. 1.

Federer’s awesome run of titles in 2017 includes three head-to-head wins over Nadal and a sparkling 39-4 record. He trails Nadal primarily because he did not play the clay-court season in the spring. Hurting his back at the Rogers Cup forced him to miss one of his favorite tournaments in Cincinnati, and he was a bit off in New York before losing to Juan Martin del Potro in the quarterfinals.

The Spaniard has traditionally faded in the post-U.S. Open stretch, but coach Carlos Moya has said that he will be motivated to finish as the year-end No. 1 and perhaps win his first ATP final in London.

“Of course, who wouldn't be motivated for that?" he said. " That was not his main goal at the beginning of the year, but now it became a goal that he can achieve. No more Slams for the rest of the year, so probably keeping No. 1 will be one of them."

The Swiss has usually been the superior player on fast and indoor surfaces, so he can make up ground on the Asian Swing in Beijing and Shanghai, his hometown in Basel and the Paris ATP Masters. The 36-year old Federer will need to be healthy if he is to become the oldest player in history to hold the No. 1 ranking (Andre Agassi at 33 years old is the current record holder.).

Nadal will have to at least somewhat maintain his points lead, and it might mean winning a big title like Shanghai, Paris or the ATP finals for the first time in his career. It could certainly happen. He’s having a special year, and will no doubt show his trademark fighting spirit to chase history once again.

But before these two begin the battle for year-end No. 1, they'll be teammates for the inaugural Lavers Cup this weekend, which pits Team World against Team Europe.