Pick of the Day: Caroline Wozniacki vs. Magda Linette, Australian Open

Magda Linette made it to the semifinals of the 2023 Australian Open, but she finds herself as an underdog in an opening-round meeting with former champion Caroline Wozniacki. It’s not common for a world No. 24 to be available at plus-money odds against a player that’s ranked No. 252, but Wozniacki is obviously a special case. The 33-year-old won this event in 2018, and she’s only ranked so low because she (temporarily) retired from tennis in 2020.

Now that Wozniacki is back as a full-time player, she’s tasked with improving that ranking by consistently playing tournaments. That’s not going to be easy for her, but the reality is that she’s a talented player and knows how to win matches in Melbourne. And I think she’s going to handle her business against Linette.

Last year, Wozniacki played farily well in her return to action. She went 4-3 in the seven tour-level matches she played, and things should only improve in 2024. Wozniacki is still in tremendous shape and she has rededicated herself to the game. Wozniacki did lose her first match of the season, to Elina Svitolina, 6-4, 6-3. But that was a very difficult opponent and Wozniacki should like this match-up a little more.

Wozniacki hasn’t faced Linette since 2017, but she’s 2-0 in this head-to-head. Both of the previous meetings also happened to come in hard-court events, and neither one of the two matches was close. On top of that, Linette’s level has been disastrous in recent months. Since the start of October, she is just 2-9 overall. She’s also entering this tournament on a two-match losing streak. With that in mind, it’s not like she’s going to be feeling confident out there, making Wozniacki’s time away from tennis seem a little less important.

This is a tough draw for Linette, who relies on her speed and court coverage to outlast opponents. The problem is that Wozniacki plays a very similar style—but not many do it better than her. Wozniacki is one of the better movers in the women’s game, and she has great size for a player that can counterpunch with the best of them. Wozniacki is also an incredible returner, which is going to be hard for Linette to deal with. Linette is not very reliable as a server, so Wozniacki will put her on her back foot in this match.

Overall, I think Wozniacki’s price is actually quite favorable here, and I think she’s capable of making a run whenever she’s in the field.

Pick: Wozniacki ML (-145)