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We’re going to get an exciting third-round match-up at the Australian Open between Felix Auger Aliassime and Daniil Medvedev. These two met in Melbourne two years ago, when Auger-Aliassime coughed up a two-set lead over Medvedev. The Russian ended up earning a 6-7 (4), 3-6, 7-6 (2), 7-5, 6-4 victory in that match, and he finished as runner-up. But that match was one that showed the world Auger-Aliassime's big-time potential. And while 2023 might have been tough on the Canadian, he still has a very bright future. He'll remind us of that again in this match.

I’m not backing Auger-Aliassime to win outright, but he should be able to come away with at least a set. Medvedev was able to escape with a victory in an absurdly tough second-round match against Emil Ruusuvuori—3-6, 6-7 (1), 6-4, 7-6 (1), 6-0, after four hours and 21 minutes, at 3:39 in the morning. I'm expecting Medvedev to be rather fatigued here, and that’s not what you want for a player that relies heavily on his legs. Medvedev runs as much as anyone on tour, as defense is his calling card.

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It’s also hard to ignore that Auger-Aliassime can be one of the best servers in the world. Two years ago, he had a hold percentage of 86.2%. That gave him a chance to win any match he was in. Well, this year, he’s up to 85.5%, and his break percentage is up at 25.9%. Over the course of a year, the latter would be the highest mark of his young career. Regardless, it’s fair to expect Auger-Aliassime to give himself a chance to win a set or two by simply focusing on his own serve. Also, Medvedev can occasionally get lazy with his own serve, so Auger-Aliassime should have some chances to break.

Overall, I wouldn’t really hate a small moneyline play on Auger Aliassime to win this match (at +330), as I think it’s a really tough situational spot for Medvedev. But I’m just going with the 23-year-old to win one set. You’ll have to lay a little juice in order to tail this one, but I think the fatigue factor on Medvedev’s side makes this a safe play.

Pick: Auger Aliassime +2.5 Sets (-165)