Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM: Will Carlos Alcaraz win Monte Carlo?

The start of the European clay-court swing is officially here, as the top players in the world are set to compete in the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. Of course, this is another tournament in which Jannik Sinner is absent from the field, as he’s suspended until the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. But Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, along with many others, will be out there, so we’re not going to be short on starpower.

With that in mind, keep reading for a quick tournament preview, looking at tournament history, playing conditions and some players to keep an eye on—along with a pick to win.

Read more: 2025 Monte Carlo Masters Preview: Carlos Alcaraz tries to dispel the doubts

Last Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Winners

2019: Fabio Fognini
2020: No tournament (COVID-19)
2021: Stefanos Tsitsipas
2022: Stefanos Tsitsipas
2023: Andrey Rublev
2024: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Odds

Carlos Alcaraz (+105)
Novak Djokovic (+600)
Alexander Zverev (12-1)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (12-1)
Casper Ruud (14-1)
Andrey Rublev (20-1)
Holger Rune (22-1)
Daniil Medvedev (22-1)
Jack Draper (25-1)
Matteo Berrettini (40-1)

(For the rest of the odds, head over to BetMGM)

Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Conditions

Last year, the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters played as one of the slowest clay-court events of the important European stretch. Tennis Abstract had it with a Surface Speed of 0.62, meaning players hit 38% fewer aces than they would on a tour-average surface. Only Barcelona had a lower mark when looking at some of the other big tournaments played at this time of year.

With this tournament being played at sea level, it’s hard to bomb serves in Monte-Carlo the way players do in Madrid, which is played at altitude. It’s also quite windy at this tournament. All in all, the result is an extremely gritty event, with players needing to grind out rallies. So, this one favors players that can construct points, showcase some variety and also outlast opponents.

Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Players To Watch

Stefanos Tsitsipas (12-1): A quick look at the recent tournament history in Monte-Carlo shows that Tsitsipas has won three of the last four titles here. The crazy thing about that is Tsitsipas really didn’t play well in 2024. This venue just brings out the best in him, as the higher bounces give him more time to unload with his backhand. And that shot, which is usually a weakness, is actually pretty lively on clay, as he gets good jump on it. Tsitsipas is also a dangerous server anywhere, and he has a world-class forehand. On top of that, when play is a little slower-developing, he can be lethal with his ability to approach the net and finish points. That said, Tsitsipas has to be viewed as one of the favorites here, and that’s especially true considering he’s 11-6 on the season. He’s entering the clay-court swing with some real momentum, which isn’t exactly common for him. So, look out for the Greek star, even though he's in a loaded portion of the draw.

Andrey Rublev (20-1): Which version of Rublev are we getting? The Russian won this tournament back in 2023, and he also won a clay-court title in Madrid last year. Rublev has proven that his game can be dangerous in these conditions, as he’s a good mover and can hit through slower courts. However, I have been stunned watching the 27-year-old in 2025. While his 9-7 record isn’t awful—and he did win a title in Doha—it just doesn’t look like his talent stands out anymore. Rublev comes into this event after having lost his first match in three consecutive tournaments, and it was Quentin Halys, Matteo Arnaldi and Zizou Bergs that ousted him. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row, and it’s alarming he can’t go out there and out-class inferior opponents. But Rublev did officially add Marat Safin as his coach a couple of days ago. I’m not sure that’ll lead to immediate results, but it’ll be interesting to see if Safin can bring out the best in him.

Jack Draper (25-1): The last time we saw Draper, he got served off the court in a loss to eventual Miami Open champion Jakub Mensik. However, after a title run in Indian Wells, it was always somewhat likely Draper would go out early in South Beach. Now, Draper will look to prove he can be dangerous on clay, and I don’t see any reason he can’t be. One of the reasons Draper was so good at Indian Wells was that he obliterates his forehand and puts a ton of spin on it. That allows him to push opponents all around the court, and it also allows him to push them further and further from the baseline. That's what a high-bouncing, jumping ball can do. That’s a trait that should do wonders for him on clay. In addition to that, we know the flatter Draper backhand is a shot that can end rallies, and he’s an awesome server. Perhaps Madrid will be the best spot for the Brit because of that big lefty serve, but I actually think he’ll do some damage here. I have him making a run to the semis, beating Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals. From there…

Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Pick To Win

Carlos Alcaraz (+105): I see very little value in backing Alcaraz to win this tournament, as the pricing is terrible for a player that has shown us so little lately. But I do think the Spaniard is going to win. Alcaraz could have a tough second-round match against Francisco Cerundolo, who is an awesome player on this surface. But Alcaraz has proven to be exceptional on natural surfaces, whether that’s clay or grass. That’s where his outrageous speed and footwork make it look like he’s playing a different sport, and then there’s the drop shots, the net play and the ability to hit extremely heavy shots from both wings.

Read more: Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic practice together at Monte Carlo Masters

I know what we saw from Alcaraz on hard courts was rather disgusting this year, but let’s not forget that he’s 16-4 in clay-court 1000s in his career. That gives him the best winning percentage (80%) on the ATP Tour when talking about clay-court matches at this specific level. Alcaraz’s Round of 64 loss to David Goffin in Miami also gave him two full weeks to get ready for this tournament. I’m sure he and his team put in a lot of good work, stressing the importance of hitting spots with his serves, playing with shape from the baseline and simply making fewer mistakes.

That’s why I like Alcaraz to find a way through a match against Cerundolo, pick up some confidence and claim his first huge title of the year. I also like him to get some revenge on Draper along the way, beating the Brit in the semifinals.

I have been very critical of Alcaraz all season long, but I think he can play at a B- level and win some big titles on the dirt this year. You have to play some high-level tennis to beat him in sloppy conditions, as it’s just miserable trying to get the ball by him and there are so many things he can do to beat you.