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One of the most compelling match-ups of Day 3 at the Australian Open features Jack Draper and Marcos Giron. Draper is a player that has the ability to contend for Grand Slams one day, and he comes into this match after having made a run to the final at the Adelaide International. The 22-year-old scored wins over some solid players over the course of the week, beating Miomir Kecmanovic, Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik. Draper then fell in a tight three-set match against Jiri Lehecka in the final. Overall, that run showed the world how talented the British phenom is, but I do think that playing five matches last week could ultimately burn Draper in Melbourne. That’s why I think Giron has a shot at pushing him in this opening-round battle.

While Draper has all the talent in the world, he has a lot to prove when it comes to his conditioning. Sadly, Draper has had to retire from a lot of tournaments already om his young career, which is why he’s only the 62nd-ranked player in the world. Draper has been as high as No. 38 in the past, but the Brit has had some trouble dealing with heat and humidity to this point, and is somewhat injury prone. With that in mind, I question how his body will hold up just a few days after a grueling week.

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Giron is also the last player you want to face if you’re looking for an easy match. The American is coming into this event on a three-match losing streak, so he’s not exactly in great form right now. But when he’s playing his game, he’s a nightmare to play against. Giron is a rock-solid baseliner and chases down a lot of balls. His main objective when he’s out on the court is to wear opponents down, and his team will likely be preaching the importance of that. If he can find a way to steal one of the first two sets, his fitness will give him a massive edge over Draper later in the match.

If this was a best-of-3 match-up, I’d be jumping to bet Draper. But majors generally turn matches into wars of attrition, and I just don’t think Giron can be ruled out in this setting. That said, I’m playing Giron to cover a rather sizable game spread here. But I am excited about seeing Draper in another Grand Slam, and I think it’ll be fun to see him try and get by this tough first test.

Pick: Giron +5.5 Games (-125)