Pick of the Day: Jannik Sinner vs. Grigor Dimitrov, Miami Open final

On Sunday, March 31, Grigor Dimitrov and Jannik Sinner will clash in the Miami Open final. While many people expected Sinner to be here, it’s downright shocking that Dimitrov is across the net. The Bulgarian went through a gauntlet that included Hubert Hurkacz, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev in his last three matches. Dimitrov has always had world-class talent, and he has won big tournaments before. The problem is that his consistency comes and goes. But he has been laser focused in South Beach this week, and I think he can turn in one more solid effort.

Sinner is obviously a more powerful ball striker than Dimitrov, and that has helped him win his only two hard-court matches against him. But the Bulgarian did force a decider when the two met in Beijing last year—and the version of Dimitrov that we have seen this week is fully capable of doing it again.

Dimitrov has been neutralizing the power of his opponents by perfectly placing his slice shots. Then, when his opponents give him an inch, Dimitrov is either ripping winners, or setting himself up for an approach to the net. He has been flawless with his volleys. On top of that, Dimitrov is serving at an extremely high level, and he’s also making opponents pay every time they miss their own first serves. His opponents have a very slim margin for error.

This feels like a match that will feature some extremely close sets because of the way both men are serving. Sinner is first on the ATP Tour in hold percentage this season, and Dimitrov is fifth. Anything can happen late in sets, as scoreboard pressure can get the best of anyone, and tiebreakers have their element of randomness.

All in all, I’m willing to put a little trust in Dimitrov, who has played out of his skull all week. I think he can force a deciding set if he maintains this level of focus, so I’m betting him to win at least one. And I don’t hate a little moneyline sprinkle here. At Sinner’s odds of -400 or higher, the oddsmakers are suggesting that the Italian wins this match eight times out of 10. But this version of Dimitrov would be capable of sneaking another win or two.

Pick: Dimitrov +1.5 Sets (+110)