Pick of the Day: Laslo Djere vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Monte Carlo

Monday, April 8 features the first full slate of action at the Monte Carlo Masters. One of the most interesting matchups sees Laslo Djere, a clay-court specialist, taking on world No. 12 Stefanos Tsitsipas, who won this tournament in 2021 and 2022. This venue will undoubtedly bring back some great memories for Tsitsipas, who has had more success here than anywhere else. But the Greek star comes into this event on a really poor run of form. So much so that I like Djere to push him a bit. That’s why I’m taking Djere to cover a 4.5-game spread.

These two met in Monte Carlo back in 2022, when Tsitsipas earned a 7-5, 7-6 (1) victory. Their only other clay-court meeting was a 2-6, 7-5, 7-5 win for Tsitsipas in a Casablanca Challenger event. The Serbian did cover this game spread in both matches. But it’s the one that was played at this very tournament that matters more, and it’s really hard to overlook that result. And Tsitsipas is a lot more beatable now than he was in 2022.

Tsitsipas comes into this match after having lost to an out-of-form Denis Shapovalov in straight sets in Indian Wells. Tsitsipas has now lost three of his last five matches, and his hold percentage is down at 86.6% this season. He was at 88.8% in 2023, and has made fewer first serves in 2024 than he has since 2018. This year's hold percentage might not sound all that bad, but it’s a pretty big drop when you also factor in that people are attacking Tsitsipas’ backhand more than ever. He has a gigantic target on that side of the court, where he needs too much time to load up the shot and also has trouble hitting higher balls. That puts a lot of pressure on Tsitsipas to dominate matches with his forehand, and doing so will be harder on slower clay in Monte Carlo.

Of course, Djere isn’t playing all that well either. He’s coming off a loss to Fabio Fognini in Marrakech, and has now lost back-to-back matches. But Djere has so much power from the baseline that he is lethal when he gets himself going. And he tends to be a big-match player, so he should get up for this battle. Djere is also a career 90-63 on the dirt, so he knows how to win matches on this surface. I’m not asking him to do that, I just need him to keep it close.

Overall, this feel like a lot of games for a proven clay-court player like Djere. He would cover this spread with a 7-6, 6-3 loss, which is something that seems possible. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if Djere wins a set, or even finds a way to knock Tsitsipas out.

Pick: Djere +4.5 Games (-128)