When Miomir Kecmanovic and Carlos Alcaraz met at the Miami Open in 2022, the Spaniard emerged with a 6-7 (5), 6-3, 7-6 (5) win in two hours and 26 minutes. Of course, the Spaniard has taken his game to another level since then, winning two Grand Slams and spending time atop the world rankings. However, the 20-year-old is still prone to some brief drops in his sky-high level, and Kecmanovic is a highly underrated player. With that in mind, I’m a little surprised to see that Kecmanovic is such a heavy underdog here. I’ll happily back the Serbian to win a set at plus-money odds.
In his only meeting with above-average competition this tournament—second-round opponent Lorenzo Songeo—Alcraz needed four sets to advance. That was also a match that was closer than the final score, with Alcaraz needing a fourth-set tiebreaker to ultimately prevail. I find it hard to rule out a similar result against Kecmanovic, who has already earned impressive wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and Tommy Paul. And while both of those matches went the distance—and both required two match-point saves—I trust the 24-year-old’s fitness. In fact, he bageled Paul in the final set of their third-round match. Kecmanovic had more left in the tank, which is impressive considering Paul is in great shape himself.
