Pick of the Day: Mirra Andreeva vs. Ons Jabeur, Australian Open

On Day 4 of the Australian Open, world No. 6 Ons Jabeur will take on 16-year-old phenom Mirra Andreeva. Jabeur had no trouble winning her first match, defeating qualifier Yulia Starodubtsewa, 6-3, 6-1. However, it’s going to take a whole different type of energy for Jabeur to find a way to beat Andreeva, who is one of the most impressive young talents in the sport.

Andreeva made it to the second round with a 7-5, 6-2 win over Bernarda Pera. The teenager is now 4-1 this year, with a hold percentage of 81.0% and a break percentage of 51.0%. Both of those numbers are off-the-charts good. Those will be difficult to maintain, but Andreeva was rock-solid in both categories in 2023. And if she is consistently holding serve in this match, it’s hard to see Jabeur finding a way through.

I know Jabeur is a three-time Grand Slam finalist, but I’m just not sure she’ll be able to punish Andreeva from the baseline. One of the ways Jabeur is able to beat her opponents is by mixing in drop shots and dishing out a ton of variety. She utilizes the slice as well as anyone. The problem is that Andreeva has an insane set of wheels, so she’s going to be able to track down everything. She’s already one of the best defenders on the planet, which says a lot considering her age. Andreeva can also pound the ball from the backhand side. And her forehand is only improving, so it’s not long before she won’t have any holes in her game.

It’s also hard to ignore the fact that Jabeur was fading down the stretch in 2023—she’s just 4-5 since the start of October. With that in mind, this is a meeting between two players heading in opposite directions. I’d rather be on the one with the momentum, so I’m playing Andreeva to win. She was one of my picks to make a run before the tournament, and I’m not backing off of it because of a tough second-round match-up. Instead, I think she will this as an opportunity to make a statement.

Bet: Andreeva ML (-102)