Pick of the Day: Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Jelena Ostapenko, Australian Open

A second-round match-up between Jelena Ostapenko and Ajla Tomljanovic could be one of the more dramatic matches of the 2024 Australian Open. These two clashed at Wimbledon three years ago, and I do mean clashed—Tomljanovic accused Ostapenko of faking an injury. The two then had words for one another after the match. There’s no guarantee the bad blood will spill over here (they have played each other since) but I expect both players to raise their games. Neither one of them will want to let this match get away, which is why I’m expecting it to be super competitive.

That said, I love Tomljanovic to win a set.

Tomljanovic wasn't lights-out her opening-round win over Petra Martic, but she was able to get the job done in three sets. Now, the 30-year-old will have a home-court advantage against a highly erratic player. Tomljanovic can really do some damage by making a lot of balls and trying to force Ostapenko into mistakes. The Latvian can rack up winners, but she’s also a threat to make a ton of unforced errors. She plays an extremely aggressive style, so there’s a lot that can go wrong on any given day. Meanwhile, Tomljanovic is as solid as they come. I like her backhand to be a real weapon in this match.

Tomljanovic also happened to win that previously mentioned clash with Ostapenko. The Latvian is still 2-1 in this head-to-head series, but all of the matches have been close. With this one taking place in Melbourne, I don’t expect anything different. So I’m taking Tomlanovic to get on the board, and I’d also suggest sprinkling the moneyline. Ostapenko is a great player, but she’s also a high variance player. That makes her a prime candidate to be an early exit in any tournament, with this match-up as tough as she could have gotten.

Pick: Tomljanovic +1.5 Sets (+105) & Tomljanovic ML (+320, for 0.5 units)