Pick of the Day: Madison Keys vs. Elena Rybakina, Miami Open

In what should be a match with some real fireworks, Madison Keys takes on Elena Rybakina in the round of 16 at the Miami Open. Keys has been through a lot in the last year, with an injury forcing her out of action from the end of October all the way until the BNP Paribas Open.

Keys understandbly looked rusty in Indian Wells. She barely held on to beat Hailey Baptiste in her first contest, with her opponent running out of steam in what looked like a match that was going the other way. Then, Keys was dismantled by Yulia Putintseva in her second match. But the American has bounced back in a big way, earning straight-set wins over Diana Shnaider and Wang Xinyu at Hard Rock Stadium. And I expect her to keep it up with a good performance against Rybakina.

I’m not putting a full unit on Keys to win this match outright, as I’m expecting some very close sets. However, I do feel great about taking Keys to cover a game spread. Rybakina is one of the best players in the world when she’s on her game, but has struggled by her standard in Miami thus far. The 2022 Wimbledon champion was pushed to three sets by both Clara Tauson and Taylor Townsend. And both matches were legitimately hanging in the balance.

If Keys can just serve like her usual self, this should be a very close match. One of Rybakina’s main advantages whenever she steps on the court is that she’s the better server and more powerful baseliner. But Keys is right there with her in both aspects of the game. The former US Open finalist also happens to be a player that can absolutely punish second serves. So, if Rybakina isn’t landing her first serves regularly, this can go Keys’ way in a hurry.

This just feels like a match that will have at least one tiebreaker, and I can easily see Keys grabbing one. So, I’m taking Keys to cover a 3.5-game spread, and I wouldn’t blame anybody that sprinkles the moneyline. Keys feels at home here, as someone who is based in the Sunshine State. She’ll have the crowd in her corner and she’s catching Rybakina at the right time. The American is also 2-1 in their three career meetings.

Pick: Keys +3.5 Games (-105) & Keys ML (+225 - 0.5 units)