On Sunday, May 19, Nicolas Jarry will face Alexander Zverev in the Internazionali BNL d’Italia final. Jarry has never won a Masters 1000 title—and before this week, never reached a Masters 1000 semifinal—so this will be the biggest match of the Chilean’s career. Meanwhile, Zverev is looking to win his sixth Masters 1000 event, and his second in Rome. He has been here before and should be able to settle his nerves.

But I trust Jarry to bring a good level in this match, so I’m rolling with the Chilean to win a set. And I’m also going to sprinkle on the moneyline.

While Zverev knows what it takes to win a 1000-level title, he played a really passive match against Alejandro Tabilo in the semifinals. It felt like Zverev wanted to push his way to a win, and he looked like he was scared of taking chances—especially from the forehand side, which is a shame considering how well he has hit that shot all tournament. Ultimately, it felt like Zverev was lucky to even advance, 1-6, 7-6 (4), 6-2.


If Zverev isn’t ripping his forehand against Jarry, I don’t see him winning easily. Jarry is going to rack up easy holds throughout the match, as he is one of the best servers in the world. He is also playing with nothing to lose. That should allow him to freely swing big from the baseline, like he did in his win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Jarry has also been better than expected as a returner throughout this event, so he might be able to put some pressure on the Zverev serve.

Overall, Jarry is just an accomplished clay-court player and has weapons that can give anyone trouble. It feels like these odds are a little disrespectful, especially in a match that could feature some lengthy sets. If there’s a tiebreaker or two, I’d like Jarry’s chances of coming away with at least one of them. That said, I think you can strap in and expect a good final. Just don’t make the mistake of expecting the big-name player to emerge without any problems.

Pick: Jarry +1.5 Sets (-120)