Pick of the Day: Roman Safiullin vs. Lorenzo Musetti, Miami Open

On Sunday, Lorenzo Musetti and Roman Safiullin clash in the second round at the Miami Open. If this match was played in 2022 or 2023, Musetti would have undoubtedly been the favorite. However, the Italian is just 5-9 since the start of 2024, and he now finds himself as a relatively big underdog. But Musetti looks like he is starting to turn a corner, so I like the idea of taking a shot on the 22-year-old to advance.

Musetti got bounced in his second match in Indian Wells last week, though I thought he turned in a good showing in the California desert. In his opening-round match, Musetti earned a hard-fought 6-4, 2-6, 7-5 win over Denis Shapovalov, who dismantled Stefanos Tsitsipas on Saturday. Then, Musetti went out and battled an in-form Holger Rune, losing a 6-2, 7-6 (5) match. Musetti was especially impressive in the second set, when he and Rune had some fun back-and-forth exchanges from the baseline.

If Musetti is feeling confident again, he should have a good shot at beating Safiullin. While I'm relatively high on the Russian’s game, he isn’t in great form right now. Safiullin has lost seven of his last nine matches, and he wasn't exactly facing consistently great competition. The 26-year-old is a player that possesses a lot of power from the baseline, and he can occasionally be tough to return against. But the latter hasn’t been the case lately, and Safiullin has been a little off the mark with his groundstrokes. He can rack up unforced errors in a hurry.

Musetti undoubtedly has the ability to match Safiullin when it comes to power, and he’s also the better mover. That said, this is a match that I view as more of a toss-up. And that makes it very hard to lay off Musetti at these odds. It’s only a matter of time before Musetti returns to the mean as a returner. He’s breaking at just an 18.6% rate this season, but he was at 25.4% in 2023 and 23.6% in 2022. The world No. 24 is also due for some positive regression as a server. I think the signs of life we have seen in the past few weeks are real.

Pick: Musetti ML (+155)