On Wednesday, March 6, we’ll all be tuned in for the start of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. The first day is loaded with enticing matchups, but I’m mostly focused on a meeting between Thanasi Kokkinakis and Marcos Giron. The American has played some superb tennis since losing to Jack Draper in a tight five-set match at the Australian Open, and I like him to keep things rolling with a win over Kokkinakis in the desert.
Over his last 11 outings, Giron has turned in an impressive 8-3 record in hard-court matches. Now, the 30-year-old returns to his home state of California, where he’ll be plenty familiar with the conditions. That should only make Giron more dangerous, which is bad news for Kokkinakis. This is already a difficult opponent for the Australian.
Kokkinakis has a booming first serve and the ability to come up with clean winners out of nowhere, but both of those strengths will be mitigated by the conditions at Indian Wells Tennis Garden. The slow-bouncing courts will make life much easier on Giron as a returner, and the combination of wind and altitude could mean some unforced errors out of Kokkinakis. If that’s the case, it could be a long afternoon for the world No. 99. Giron is one of the better defensive players in the men’s game, so he’ll force Kokkinakis to play a lot of extra shots.
The only question in a matchup like this is whether Giron will serve well enough to win. But I feel good about his chances, as his 81.1% hold percentage and 64.4% first serve percentage are both career highs. Giron also doesn’t need to go all that big with the ball on his racquet, as he knows he can trust himself to win longer rallies. So, just making a lot of serves, even at slower speeds, will do wonders for him.
It’s never easy biting the bullet and playing a favorite at these odds, but this genuinely feels like the right call. It would likely take a complete meltdown from Giron in order for Kokkinakis to win.
Pick: Giron To Win (-155)