Iga Swiatek is looking to win Roland Garros for the fourth time in the last five years. It’s remarkable, especially since she’ll still be 22 when the tournament begins. But Swiatek’s game is perfectly suited for the clay, and it’s going to take a Herculean effort from somebody to knock her off. That’s why BetMGM has Swiatek as a -120 favorite to retain.

In a lot of ways, Swiatek’s style remembles 14-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal’s. Like Rafa, Iga moves better than all of her peers on the surface. Hitting winners past either of them seems impossible on the terre battue. She can track down pretty much anything and flip the point in her favor. And also like Nadal, Swiatek isn’t strictly a grinder. She has an aggressive all-court game, so she can go on offense and hit winners with regularity.

One of Swiatek’s only true weaknesses is that she can be sped up on quicker courts. That’s why Swiatek has taken some shocking losses over the last couple of years, despite being dominant for a large majority of the time. But there’s no rushing Swiatek at Roland Garros. The courts allow the Pole to get her feet set and control points however she wants.

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Iga Swiatek began her latest clay-court campaign this week in Stuttgart.

Iga Swiatek began her latest clay-court campaign this week in Stuttgart.

Serving against Swiatek on the dirt is another challenge for opponents. Her 48.3% break percentage in 2024 is wildly impressive, no matter the surface. But Swiatek has a break percentage of 51.6% on clay. That means she’s breaking her opponent’s serve every other time they have the ball on their racquet. Meanwhile, over the last 52 weeks, Swiatek has a hold percentage of 85.1% on clay. That’s up from her career clay-court hold percentage of 79.5%, and it’s much higher than her overall hold percentage of 82.8% in 2024. Swiatek’s serve is just a lot more effective on the dirt, whether it’s her hitting an unreturnable serve or just setting herself up for an easy winner.

It all makes it very difficuly to suggest betting anybody but Swiatek at Roland Garros. It’s never fun betting the tournament favorite, but you’ll feel better about it as Swiatek steamrolls her way to yet another championship in Paris. And if you aren’t happy with how much a bet on Swiatek would make you, you can always put more on it.

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Any upset potential?

Of course, there’s no such thing as a sure thing in sports betting. After all, Swiatek didn’t win the title in 2021. The Pole was upset by Maria Sakkari that year, paving the way for Barbora Krejcikova to sneak in a title. So, throwing some darts and hoping for Swiatek to get upset is another way to go about betting the Roland Garros futures market.

If you’re looking for some options as far as long shots go, two players to consider are Jessica Pegula (33-1) and Daria Kasatkina (50-1). A lot would have to break right for either player to win, but crazier things have happened. Pegula has been a top player on tour for years now, and she’s just starting to play her way into form after a disappointing stretch of play. Her price seems way off heading into clay-court season. Kasatkina, meanwhile, happens to have the third-best record on clay over the last 52 weeks. And she’s a superb baseline player, which is crucial on the dirt.