What's the best way to bet Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells?

If you watch Tennis Bets Live, on @tennisbets, you know that I have Carlos Alcaraz to win the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. I gave that play at +430 odds, but I won’t personally be playing anything in Alcaraz’s semifinal meeting with Jannik Sinner. That said, if I was forced into action, I think backing Alcaraz at plus-money odds is the right move here.

Sinner has looked like a better player than Alcaraz for almost six months now. After winning Wimbledon, Alcaraz’s play has faded quite a bit. Meanwhile, Sinner was an absolute force at the end of 2023, and he followed it up by winning the Australian Open in January. He also lifted a trophy in Rotterdam, where he was hardly tested throughout the tournament. Sinner is now a perfect 16-0 since the start of 2024, and he looks like the best player in tennis. His overall game has come a long way, as he’s no longer relying on just power. Sinner now has more finesse to his game, as he can hit with more shape and also mixes in drop shots regularly. On top of that, the Italian is lethal as both a server and a returner.

All that said, Alcaraz still has the talent to beat anybody when he’s playing well. Sure, he let Sinner steal the spotlight a bit, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he isn’t on the Italian’s level. Alcaraz is still a 20-year-old with two Grand Slam titles. I personally believe that he was a little fatigued to end 2023, and I think he was lost in Melbourne without coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. (The former Grand Slam champion was recovering from knee surgery and wasn’t able to travel with Alcaraz.) That’s a significant voice that Alcaraz wasn’t able to talk strategy with.

With Alcaraz starting to figure things out, it’s hard not to like him as an underdog on a surface that might favor his game as much as any. The slow hard courts in Indian Wells make it very difficult to hit by him. Sinner has as much power as anyone, but even he might have some trouble matching his usual winner count. Alcaraz doesn’t just track the ball down here, but he also has enough time to set up and do something with it. These surfaces also happen to make life easier on Alcaraz as a returner, and he is already tremendous in that regard. (To be fair, both of these players are.) But I think Alcaraz could have the edge as a server in this match. That would be huge for a player that has needed to work on that part of his game.

In Alcaraz’s dominant 6-3, 6-1 win over Alexander Zverev—a player that beat him twice in a span of November to January—the Spaniard made 79% of his first serves and won 87% of his first-serve points. Alcaraz was regularly hitting his serve deep in the corners of the box, which is something he has clearly been working on. That was either making his serve impossible to return, or setting him up nicely for some serve-plus-ones. When you combine that with the fact that Alcaraz is a tremendous serve-and-volley player, it feels like he’s potentially turning his lone weakness into a strength. And that could make the difference in a head-to-head series that has gone Sinner’s way in back-to-back matches.

Alcaraz made some comments after the win over Zverev about Sinner being the best in the world, and that this match will be a good test about where his game is right now. But I believe Alcaraz was being a little modest—and perhaps trying to butter the Italian up with a little gamesmanship. I think the Spaniard knows that he has been working hard with this specific matchup in mind. And while Sinner’s all-around improvements might be more evident, Alcaraz will be a different player if he figures out the service game. It seems like he’s heading in that direction. He also looks to be a bit more reserved from the baseline, which is crucial considering how mistake-prone he can be.

Alcaraz has all the talent in the world, and sometimes he wants to show it off. But simplifying things will be good for him in the long run. We saw him do that in a masterful performance against Daniil Medvedev in last year’s Indian Wells final, and he did it again against Zverev last round. Those were two of the better performances of his career. I think we’ll get a third masterpiece in the desert on Saturday. If we don’t, look for betting markets to react rather strongly. If Sinner beats Alcaraz on a slower court, he’ll be cemented as the best player in tennis, and his odds to win the next Grand Slams will reflect that.

Pick: Alcaraz To Win (+118)