Wimbledon Men's Betting Preview: Will the 'Summer of Bublik' continue?

There's no shortage of storylines on the men’s side heading into Wimbledon. Carlos Alcaraz, who just beat Jannik Sinner in an instant classic Roland Garros final, is looking to win his third straight Slam on grass. But the Italian will be out for revenge, and Novak Djokovic is always lurking. Djokovic has lost two straight finals to Alcaraz at the All England Club, and the 24-time Grand Slam champion likely views this as one of his last realistic shots at winning No. 25.

We’ll keep you updated with all the news, analysis and stories you can handle throughout the course of the tournament, and we’ll also have you covered from a betting perspective. With that in mind, keep reading for a Wimbledon men’s betting preview, complete with odds, players to watch—and a pick to win:

Recent Wimbledon Winners

• 2019: Novak Djokovic
• 2020: No tournament held
• 2021: Novak Djokovic
• 2022: Novak Djokovic
• 2023: Carlos Alcaraz
• 2024: Carlos Alcaraz

Wimbledon Betting Odds

• Carlos Alcaraz (+110)
• Jannik Sinner (+190)
• Novak Djokovic (+650)
• Jack Draper (18-1)
• Alexander Bublik (25-1)
• Alexander Zverev (28-1)
• Daniil Medvedev (40-1)
• Taylor Fritz (40-1)
• Jiri Lehecka (50-1)
• Ben Shelton (80-1)

(For the rest of the odds, head over to BetMGM)

Wimbledon Conditions

Grass-court tennis is definitely unique. The courts are slicker and faster than most, and the ball doesn’t bounce as high as it does elsewhere. Tennis Abstract’s Surface Speed ratings have Wimbledon at 1.12. That means that players hit 12% more aces at Wimbledon in 2024 than they did on tour-average surfaces. Naturally, these courts favor big servers, but you can’t just be a servebot. Variety goes a long way on grass, which is why players that can play at the net, utilize slice shots and hit good dropshots also play well at this time of year.

The conditions do change over the course of the tournament, though. Earlier in the tournament, when the grass looks verdant, things are much faster. As the grass becomes a little more worn, things slow down significantly, and the bounces can be all over the place. That’s why players with adaptability tend to do well at Wimbledon.

Wimbledon Players To Watch

Alexander Bublik (25-1): Will the “Summer of Bublik” continue? The 28-year-old went to the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, beating Alex de Minaur and Draper along the way. Then, Bublik won the Terra Wortman Open in Halle, going through Sinner, Tomas Machac, Karen Khachanov and Medvedev in the final four matches.

Bublik has always enjoyed playing on grass, where he is 38-19 in his career. His massive serve, aggressive baseline game and ability to hit dropshots makes opponents extremely uneasy. He also seems to be more focused than ever.

If you count a championship run in a Turin Challenger in May, Bublik has won 14 of his last 16 matches. He’s one of the hottest players in tennis, and he’s going to be a popular pick to win in SW19. I’m not sure he’ll be able to maintain this level, but I’m looking forward to watching the show.

Lorenzo Musetti (80-1): Musetti had to retire in the Roland Garros semifinals, where he was down a set and a break to Alcaraz. But Musetti is one of the most dangerous players in the world on natural surfaces. So, if he’s healthy, he’s a threat to make a run in London—even if that run will likely be stopped by Sinner.

Last year, Musetti went all the way to the semifinals at Wimbledon, beating Fritz in the quarterfinals and then losing to Djokovic in a three-set match that was closer than the score suggested. Musetti’s serve benefits from the low bounces on grass, making one of his weaknesses a little stronger. Then, his all-court game, complete with a wicked backhand slice, allows him to thrive from the back of the court.

Of course, it’s a little hard to know where Musetti’s game will be with the Italian having not played any tune-up events on grass. But he has been playing practice sets, and he’s a player that has proven he can go deep in any tournament. At 80 to 1, he offers some serious value, and don’t rule out another lengthy run in London.

Wimbledon Pick To Win*

Jannik Sinner (+190): While the world No. 1 has a bit of an Alcaraz problem, I do think it’s one that can be figured out on grass. Sinner should have more success finishing points on this quicker surface, giving Alcaraz a little less time to come up with magic on the move. I also expect Sinner to be a little bolder in big moments the next time he faces the Spaniard. He had chances to punish some short balls in their Roland Garros final, and he was too often quick to hit the ball hard at a big target. He needs to increase the risk a little against a player with Alcaraz’s ability to steal points. Alcaraz never hesitates to come up with something brilliant in pressure spots, and Sinner needs a little more of that to flip this head-to-head series.

Having said all of that, Djokovic is the only player I’d consider betting outright before the tournament. There’s just not enough value with either Sinner or Alcaraz right now. If we end up seeing a rematch between those two—which feels extremely possible—you won’t be in much worse shape with the price. Why stress through the first six matches?

As far as Djokovic goes, how can you not value the fact that he has been in each of the last six Wimbledon finals? The Serbian has also won four of them. Also, last year’s run to the championship was more impressive than most, as Djokovic was just a few weeks removed from meniscus surgery.

Djokovic also happened to play extremely well at Roland Garros. Sure, he failed to win a set against Sinner in the semifinals, but it was a tightly-contested three-setter. And moving to grass, where his pinpoint serving accuracy and flawless ball striking is rewarded, should get him a little closer to his two younger rivals.