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Iga Swiatek just claimed her fifth Grand Slam title, as she emerged victorious at Roland Garros for the fourth time in her career. Now, we head over to the grass courts at Wimbledon, where the top players in the world will convene and compete again. Aryna Sabalenka (+320) actually enters this event as the betting favorite, which isn’t surprising considering how well her power game meshes with faster conditions. But it’ll be interesting to see how Swiatek’s (+450) game translates, as she has made some changes that should work well at SW19. Also, Elena Rybakina (+600), who won this event in 2022, has the ability to do it again. With that in mind, keep reading for our Wimbledon betting preview.

Fliers

Jessica Pegula (+2000): Pegula blew a match point against Emma Raducanu in Eastbourne, but it was another match in which the American played at a high level. After having seen Pegula win a title in Berlin—going through Donna Vekic, Katerina Siniakova, Coco Gauff and Anna Kalinskaya in the process—it wasn’t a failure that she couldn’t keep going in Eastbourne. Overall, Pegula has looked the part of a Top 10 player over the last few weeks, and she’s a player with the potential to go very deep at Wimbledon. Pegula’s game is as well rounded as anyone’s on tour, and her powerful, flat baseline strokes make her a tough out on grass.

Madison Keys (+2000): Keys is coming off one heck of a clay-court season, but she’s at her best on grass. The American is 44-14 on this surface in her career, and she ups her hold percentage to 78.9% on grass. That’s a lot higher than the 75.2% she has on hard courts, or 72.2% on clay courts. The interesting thing about that is that Keys is also a good returner, as she uses her size and length to get balls back. She’s also aggressive when she sees second serves. On top of that, Keys goes extremely big from the baseline, so she’s capable of ending points quickly on grass. However, she also moves really well for a powerful player. All in all, there just aren’t many players that fit these conditions as well as Keys, who is a two-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist. I’ll be keeping an eye on her odds to make the semis, or even the final.

Osaka notably held match point on Iga Swiatek at Roland Garros before succumbing in their second-round classic.

Osaka notably held match point on Iga Swiatek at Roland Garros before succumbing in their second-round classic.

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Coco Gauff (+700): Gauff is going to be a player I’m very interested in backing at the US Open, as she’s the defending champion and loves playing in front of American fans. However, Gauff’s game isn’t as good of a fit for grass as it is for hard and clay courts. She relies heavily on her ability to extend points, but taxing points aren't the norm at Wimbledon. Gauff won’t be able to grind her opponents down, and I also don’t think her forehand will be good enough for her to go on the offensive as often as she’ll need to. She should win a few matches, but expect her to eventually run into a player that can outserve her—and also strike the ball a bit cleaner from the baseline.

Naomi Osaka (+1600): Osaka seemed like she had the potential to do some damage during the grass-court season, after nearly beating Swiatek at Roland Garros. In that match, Her ability to blast winners through the slower conditions made it easy to envision a scenario in which she would enjoy the fast conditions in London. But Osaka’s lack of mobility has been an issue since the start of the grass-court season. She needs a little bit of time to get to balls and set her feet, but the quicker conditions don’t afford her that.

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Pick to Win

Iga Swiatek (+450): Swiatek is just 13-7 on grass in her career, and she hasn’t had much success at Wimbledon. However, the Pole has made some changes to her game that should result in more wins in quicker conditions. Swiatek’s hold percentage is up from 80.3% last year to 83.3% this season. That’s good for a career high, and it should mean good things in London. Swiatek also has the ability to rip winners with the best of them. There’s no reason she shouldn’t be dangerous on this surface eventually, and I’m banking on it happening sooner rather than later. Swiatek is the best player in the world, and I generally trust her to figure it out, no matter the circumstances.